We will be very straight forward with this bet. Is it likely to win? No, it’s not. However, do we feel Jorge Masvidal has greater than a 20% chance to win? Damn right we do. In terms of the striking metrics, Jorge Masvidal averages more significant strikes per minute, and absorbs less. His striking defense numbers are better than Gilbert Burns. In the grappling department, Burns has the edge. It is worth noting that Jorge Masvidal has 75% takedown defense, and has never been submitted in his UFC career. Masvidal has only been knocked out once (Kamaru Usman), so we have good reason to believe he will be able to go the full 3 rounds. If Masvidal can avoid the takedowns and keep this fight on the feet, we see a path to victory for him via knockout or decision. We will take the value and roll with a half unit bet on Gamebred to get a much needed win.