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0.5 UNIT
Pistons @ Knicks
Over 213 (-110)
This game has the lowest total of the series so far. Games 1 and 2 in New York closed between 221 and 222.5 with a 1-1 split on the total. Games 3 and 4 in Detroit closed at 216.5 with a 1-1 split on the total. Tonight is a potential elimination game for the Pistons. It is worth noting that elimination games tend to be slightly lower scoring. Each possession is extremely valuable when your season is on the line, which can often lead to a slower tempo game with fewer overall possessions. This narrative is reflected in tonight's 213 total. Neither of these teams has an overpowering defense with both ranking outside the top 10. Each team has an offense capable of a big night from the three-point line. The Knicks and Pistons are both shooting over 35% from three-point range throughout the series. They are also two of the best free-throw shooting teams remaining. The Knicks are 4-0 to the over in their last four games following a performance where they scored under 100 points (they scored 94 in their last game). We like our chances of this game going over the 213 point total. Our stake is a half unit.
(4/29 at 8:46am via Caesars)
MLB Bets
MLB betting charts are updated.
0.75 UNIT
Twins @ Guardians
Guardians Moneyline (-150)
The Guardians are coming off an ugly loss yesterday, but this looks like a favorable matchup for a bounce-back win. Tanner Bibee was not in his best form to begin the season, and one poor start earlier this month really hurt his metrics. Bibee looked good against the Yankees in his most recent start and has pitched well in both of his home starts. Twins starter Chris Paddack has a FIP approaching 6, which is not encouraging. Minnesota’s bullpen has better metrics overall, but the Guardians bullpen has their top three relievers completely fresh after two days of rest. Both offenses and defenses grade out very close to one another. We are going to side with the Guardians to bounce back with a win behind their best starter and a fresh bullpen.
(4/29 at 8:43am via ESPNBet)
UFC Bets
UFC betting charts are updated.
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NBA - Overall: 576-436 (+138.3 Units)
NFL - Overall: 344-247 (+107.7 Units)
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PGA - Total Units To Date (+68.4 Units)
UFC - Overall: 259-235 (+54.6 Units)
MLB - Overall: 814-670 (+46.6 Units)
CFB - Overall: 177-159 (+26.6 Units)
The BradyBagz Show
Sean Brady's Picks
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Cory Sandhagen Moneyline
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
Bo Nickal Moneyline
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Santiago Ponzinibbio Moneyline
Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
Montel Jackson Moneyline
Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
Mason Jones Moneyline
Azamat Bekoev vs. Ryan Loder
Azamat Bekoev Moneyline
Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson
Gillian Robertson Moneyline
Joe Pyfer's Picks
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BradyBagz Records
Joe Pyfer's 2025 Record/Results:
UFC - 81-53 (60.4%) +22.3 Units
*All picks graded as a 1 unit risk.
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MLB Results
0.25 UNIT
Braves @ Rockies
Rockies Moneyline (+155)
Hold your nose for this one, but we are taking a small flyer on the worst team in baseball. The Colorado Rockies have a 4-23 record, so there isn’t much positive to say. Our angle is fairly straightforward here. Braves starter Bryce Elder has pitched poorly this season. He currently holds a FIP in the 6s. Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has better advanced metrics than Bryce Elder. The Braves bullpen hasn’t been nearly as effective this season. The Rockies bullpen actually holds a better ERA than the Atlanta bullpen. The Braves have the better offense, but that edge alone is not enough to warrant the steep price behind a questionable starter. Our wager is a small one on the Rockies moneyline at an appealing (+155) price.
(4/28 at 2:24pm via BetRivers)
(LOSS)
0.25 UNIT
Athletics @ Rangers
Athletics Moneyline (-104)
This game features two left-handed starters, Patrick Corbin and JP Sears. The advantage we see for the Athletics is how well their offense has hit left-handed pitching so far this season. The A’s rank 4th in the MLB in wRC+ against lefties, while the Rangers offense ranks 19th. The Rangers do have better bullpen and defensive metrics, but this looks to be a prime spot for the A’s offense against a vulnerable left-handed starter. We will take a small flyer on the Athletics moneyline.
(4/28 at 2:27pm via FanDuel)
(WIN)
0.25 UNIT
Twins @ Guardians
Guardians Moneyline (-125)
Gavin Williams and Bailey Ober are both right-handed starters with a FIP in the mid 4s. The Guardians look to have a few small advantages in this matchup outside of the starters. Cleveland’s offense has hit right-handed pitching better than Minnesota to this point. The Guardians bullpen has all four of their top arms fresh and available. Defensively, Cleveland holds a much better DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ranking. At (-125) odds, we like the side of the Guardians.
(4/28 at 2:25pm via BetMGM)
(LOSS)
NBA Results
0.5 UNIT
Cavaliers @ Heat
Heat +9 (-108)
The Miami Heat trail 0-3 in this series. No team in NBA history has ever come back from an 0-3 series deficit, so this appears to be more a matter of whether or not the Heat are going to get swept. If you look at our NBA betting charts, the Cavs are better in nearly every metric across the board. Miami has also lost by 9+ points in every game this series. For these reasons, tonight’s 9-point spread seems reasonable to some degree. However, if you look back at the spreads of the three games played in Miami between these teams, tonight's spread is a significant outlier. Game 3 closed with a spread of +4.5, and the two regular season matchups closed at +5.5 and +2.5. There were no significant injuries from Game 3 to Game 4 that would warrant a 4.5-point move. If anything, the Cavs currently have Darius Garland listed as questionable, while no key Heat players are in jeopardy of missing this game. There is a common NBA playoff narrative that teams who are down 0-3 may play with less urgency and tend to “pack it in” to some degree. We have no concerns about that narrative with this Miami Heat team. Packing it in is the polar opposite of the culture that Erik Spoelstra and Pat Riley have created in Miami. While the Heat appear to be outmatched in the series, we anticipate Miami to fight until the buzzer and give their best effort to avoid being swept. The Heat have shot three-pointers at a 40% clip in this series, and they have a quality defense. Those two components, combined with a great coach, provide optimism about a competitive game tonight. Our wager is a half unit on the Miami Heat +9.
(4/28 at 7:12am via FanDuel)
(LOSS)
The BradyBagz Show
Sean Brady's Results
Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates
Ian Machado Garry Moneyline
(WIN)
Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang
Zhang Mingyang By KO/TKO
(WIN)
Giga Chikadze vs David Onama
David Onama Moneyline
(WIN)
Michel Pereira vs Abus Magomedov
Michel Pereira Moneyline
(LOSS)
Randy Brown vs Nicolas Dalby
Randy Brown Moneyline
(WIN)
Ikram Aliskerov vs André Muniz
Ikram Aliskerov By Finish
(WIN)
Matt Schnell vs Jimmy Flick
Matt Schnell Moneyline
(WIN)
Evan Elder vs Gauge Young
Evan Elder Moneyline
(WIN)
Da’Mon Blackshear vs Heili Alateng
Da’Mon Blackshear Moneyline
(WIN)
Joe Pyfer's Results
Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates By KO/TKO
(LOSS)
Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang
Zhang Mingyang By KO/TKO
(WIN)
Giga Chikadze vs David Onama
David Onama Moneyline
(WIN)
Michel Pereira vs Abus Magomedov
Michel Pereira Moneyline
Fight To Go The Distance
(SPLIT)
Randy Brown vs Nicolas Dalby
Randy Brown Moneyline
(WIN)
Ikram Aliskerov vs André Muniz
Ikram Aliskerov By KO/TKO
(WIN)
Matt Schnell vs Jimmy Flick
Matt Schnell Moneyline
(WIN)
Evan Elder vs Gauge Young
Evan Elder Moneyline
(WIN)
Chris Gutiérrez vs John Castañeda
John Castañeda Moneyline
Fight To Go The Distance
(SPLIT)
Da’Mon Blackshear vs Heili Alateng
Da’Mon Blackshear Moneyline
(WIN)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Cameron Saaiman
Malcolm Wellmaker Moneyline
(WIN)
