0.25 UNIT

Dodgers @ Red Sox

Dodgers Moneyline (-130)

This wager is a fade on Red Sox starter Walker Buehler, who has an ERA and FIP in the upper 5s. Buehler is a righty, and the Dodgers offense ranks 4th in the MLB in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Dodgers starter Dustin May has slightly better advanced pitching metrics with an ERA and FIP in the upper 4s. The Red Sox offense ranks below the league average in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (19th). The Red Sox have the better bullpen, but they did use three of their top relievers yesterday, and the Dodgers should have the offensive edge throughout the entirety of this game. We are comfortable with the (-130) price on the Dodgers moneyline.

(7/27 at 7:59am via FanDuel)

0.25 UNIT

Mariners @ Angels

Mariners -0.5 F5 Innings (-120)

We see a notable edge for the Mariners in this starting pitching matchup between Logan Gilbert and Kyle Hendricks. Gilbert is in the midst of another fantastic season with a FIP in the mid-2s. Angels starter Kyle Hendricks has a FIP approaching 5 and is allowing a lot of hard contact to opposing hitters. The Mariners offense ranks 6th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, making this a tough matchup for the veteran righty Hendricks. The Angels offense ranks 22nd in wRC+ versus RHP, which is an appealing matchup for Logan Gilbert. The full game moneyline is a bit pricier than we’d like, so we are going to key in on the first 5 innings -0.5 run line to get to a more reasonable (-120) price tag.

(7/27 at 8:03am via BetRivers)

0.5 UNIT

Mariners @ Angels

Mariners Moneyline (-135)

If you take a look at our MLB betting charts, the Mariners appear to have advantages across the board in this matchup. Among the two starters, Seattle’s George Kirby holds better metrics than Angels starter Tyler Anderson. The Mariners have an offensive edge, a better bullpen, and a better defensive ranking. Given all of these advantages in today’s matchup, we are going with a half-unit wager on the Mariners moneyline.

(7/26 at 9:08am via bet365)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Phillies @ Yankees

Yankees Moneyline (+100)

The Phillies have the better starter in this matchup, as Ranger Suarez’s metrics are significantly better than Marcus Stroman’s. However, it’s worth noting that Suarez is a lefty, and the Yankees rank #1 in the MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. While Suarez has been very good this season, this is a tough matchup for him. The Yankees hold a slight bullpen edge, and while their defense has struggled of late, New York ranks top 10 in DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) compared to 28th for Philadelphia’s defense. At plus money, we like the price on the home underdogs.

(7/26 at 8:55am via BetMGM)

(LOSS)

0.25 UNIT

Guardians @ Royals

Guardians Moneyline (-102)

This is Game 1 of today’s doubleheader. Guardians starter Gavin Williams had a rough start to the season, but his ERA has been in the 2s over his last 9 starts throughout June and July. Royals starter Michael Wacha is 1-5 with a 4.50 ERA over the last two months. Both starters are righties, and neither team appears to have a notable edge against right-handed pitching. Both teams have strong bullpens, but the Guardians bullpen is slightly better suited for today’s doubleheader. Cleveland’s top 4 relievers have all pitched less than 25 pitches over the last four days. At (-102) odds, we like the price on the Guardians behind our preferred starter, Gavin Williams.

(7/26 at 8:17am via BetMGM)

(LOSS)

0.25 UNIT

Dodgers @ Red Sox

Red Sox -0.5 F5 Innings (-103)

We see a clear-cut advantage for the Red Sox in today’s starting pitching matchup between Garrett Crochet and Clayton Kershaw. Crochet currently has some of the best advanced metrics in the MLB, with an ERA and FIP in the 2s. He’s 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA through 20 innings pitched in July. Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw has a 3.27 ERA, but a FIP in the 4s. Kershaw had a strong month of June, but his metrics have dipped a bit in July. Both starters are lefties, and both offenses rank top 10 in the MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. That said, Clayton Kershaw looks to be the more vulnerable starter between the two. Boston has a better bullpen on paper, but the Dodgers offensive edge will increase once Garrett Crochet exits the game. Our wager is on the Red Sox -0.5 run line through the first 5 innings.

(7/26 at 9:15am via BetRivers)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder

Robert Whittaker Moneyline (-148)

This fight is a great example of how recency bias can drastically impact the UFC betting market. Robert Whittaker is coming off a loss against Khamzat Chimaev, where he was a very popular underdog pick among bettors. Whittaker lost in Round 1 via face crank to the undefeated Chimaev. Reinier de Ridder closed in the (+300) range against Bo Nickal in his last fight. He beat the undefeated and highly touted Bo Nickal and now looks to be getting a lot more respect from the oddsmakers. Reinier de Ridder will take a big leap in competition against a proven top-level middleweight. Robert Whittaker has fought much tougher competition throughout his career and looks to be the more dangerous striker while this fight is standing. Reinier de Ridder’s two career losses both came by way of KO/TKO, and Robert Whittaker will be the most dangerous striker de Ridder has faced to date. It’s key to note that Reinier de Ridder has high-level grappling and BJJ. He tends to use his size advantage to press forward and pressure his opponents, which is a skill set that has troubled Whittaker in his two most recent losses (Chimaev & Du Plessis). However, we’ve also seen that pressure style be a bad recipe against Whittaker. In his fight prior to Khamzat Chimaev, surging prospect Ikram Aliskerov was in a similar spot stepping up in competition against Whittaker. Aliskerov did not pass the test, as he was knocked out in Round 1 by Whittaker in that fight. Our wager is a half unit on Robert Whittaker to win.

(7/25 at 6:48am via BetRivers)

0.5 UNIT

Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci

Amanda Ribas Moneyline (-175)

Amanda Ribas is coming off back-to-back losses and is just 1-3 in her last four fights. That being said, it’s important to note that those three losses all came against quality opponents (Mackenzie Dern, Rose Namajunas, and Maycee Barber). Tabatha Ricci is coming off a loss against Yan Xiaonan and is 2-2 in her last four fights. If you take a look at our UFC betting charts, Amanda Ribas looks to have the better striking and grappling metrics in this matchup. Ricci is a solid wrestler, but her overall skill set looks to be a step down from Ribas. The (-175) price tag implies roughly a 63% win probability for Amanda Ribas, which is right in line with where we feel this fight should be priced. Amanda Ribas on the moneyline is our wager.

(7/23 at 9:17am via BetRivers)

Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder

Reinier de Ridder Moneyline

Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee

Petr Yan Moneyline

Shara Magomedov vs Marc‑Andre Barriault

Marc‑Andre Barriault Moneyline

Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa

Asu Almabayev Moneyline

Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov

Nikita Krylov Moneyline

Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov

Bryce Mitchell Moneyline

Muslim Salikhov vs Carlos Leal

Carlos Leal Moneyline

Davey Grant vs Da’Mon Blackshear

Da’Mon Blackshear Moneyline

Martin Buday vs Marcus Buchecha

Marcus Buchecha Moneyline

Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder

Reinier de Ridder Moneyline

Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee

Petr Yan Moneyline

Fight To Go The Distance

Shara Magomedov vs Marc‑Andre Barriault

Marc‑Andre Barriault Moneyline

Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa

Asu Almabayev Moneyline

Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov

Nikita Krylov Moneyline

Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov

Bryce Mitchell Moneyline

Muslim Salikhov vs Carlos Leal

Carlos Leal Moneyline

Davey Grant vs Da’Mon Blackshear

Da’Mon Blackshear Moneyline

Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci

Amanda Ribas Moneyline

Ibo Aslan vs Billy Elekana

Ibo Aslan Moneyline

Martin Buday vs Marcus Buchecha

Marcus Buchecha Moneyline