College Football Week 2 Bets:

0.5 UNIT

Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech 

Under 49 (-113)

Write up will be posted shortly.

(9/11 at 11:32am via ProphetX)

0.5 UNIT

Oklahoma @ Michigan 

Under 43.5 (-106)

Write up will be posted shortly.

(9/11 at 11:40am via Novig)

All NCAAF Week 2 bets will be posted by 10am ET Saturday.

MLB betting charts are updated.

0.3 UNIT

Astros @ Rays

Rays Moneyline (-156)

We like this matchup for the Rays with one of the most consistent starters in the league on the mound in Drew Rasmussen. Over a 153-inning sample size this season, Rasmussen has a FIP and ERA in the 2s, and his home splits are also very good. The Astros are going with a bullpen game, and it’s worth noting that their bullpen ranks below league average (17th). This game should primarily feature right-handed pitching on both sides, and the Rays rank 1st in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season (8th over the last 30 days). The Astros offense ranks 8th in wRC+ versus RHP, but 28th over the last 30 days. Tampa has a significantly better defense, ranking 2nd in DRS (defensive runs saved) compared to 26th for Houston. This wager carries some extra juice, but we like the Rays' chances to secure a home win tonight, and we will back them on the moneyline. 

(9/11 at 1:12pm via Novig)

0.25 UNIT

Guardians @ Twins

Guardians Moneyline (-113)

This game features two quality starters in Parker Messick and Taj Bradley. Among the two, Messick holds the slightly better metrics both over the full-season sample and in his road splits versus Bradley’s home splits. Parker Messick is a lefty, and the Twins rank below the league average in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, including 25th over the last 30 days. Bradley is a righty, and the Guardians have struggled against righties this season but have been trending upward, ranking 12th in wRC+ versus RHP over the last 30 days. Our MLB betting charts indicate two other notable edges for Cleveland with their bullpen and defense. The Guardians' bullpen ranks 6th, with all of their top relievers on extended rest, while the Twins' bullpen ranks 25th. We are comfortable with the (-113) price on the Guardians moneyline.

(9/11 at 8:47am via Novig)

NFL Week 1 betting charts are updated.

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All NFL Week 1 bets will be posted by 10am ET Sunday.

UFC betting charts are updated.

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All UFC Noche bets will be posted by 10am ET Saturday.

0.5 UNIT

Rams vs. 49ers

Rams -3 (-125)

This is a neutral-site game being played in Melbourne, Australia. Los Angeles had key advantages on both sides of the ball last season, finishing 2nd in offensive efficiency and 7th defensively, compared to 6th offensively and 24th defensively for San Francisco. The 49ers did deal with significant injuries on both sides of the ball last season, which certainly impacted those metrics. Most of their roster is expected to be available tonight, including George Kittle and Nick Bosa, who were both listed as questionable throughout the week. The Rams will be without Aaron Donald but otherwise appear to have the majority of their core starters available. Our two biggest concerns with San Francisco are its rushing attack and Brock Purdy’s performance under pressure. The 49ers ranked 29th in rushing offense last season. Christian McCaffrey remains one of the best running backs in football, but he didn’t find much room on the ground last year and did most of his damage catching passes out of the backfield. More importantly, Purdy’s passer rating dropped from 112 in clean pockets to just 64 when pressured. The Rams' defensive front, led by Myles Garrett, is capable of generating consistent pressure, and LA also added two All-Pro-caliber corners to the secondary, making this a difficult matchup on paper for Purdy. On the other side, San Francisco finished 31st in pressure rate last season. Bosa’s return obviously helps, but his snap count could be limited, and one player alone may not be enough to immediately fix what was one of the league’s least effective pass rushes. Matthew Stafford should have the cleaner pocket throughout the game and opportunities to get the ball to his receiving weapons. We’re going to pay a little extra juice to move the spread onto the key number of Rams -3 at -125 odds. Our stake is 0.5 units.

(9/10 at 12:20pm via ProphetX)

(LOSS)

0.5 UNIT

Patriots @ Seahwaks

Patriots +3.5 (-109)

The NFL is back tonight with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. While things didn’t go well for New England in the Super Bowl, we like the Pats' chances of giving fans a more competitive game this time around. New England has made a concerted effort to address the weaknesses Seattle exposed in February, including adding a #1 WR in AJ Brown, an All-Pro guard (Vera-Tucker), a veteran safety in Kevin Byard, and several other key additions from the NFL Draft and free agency. The Seahawks enter the season with several important departures, including star RB Kenneth Walker, starting corner Tariq Woolen, and starting safety Coby Bryant. Seattle did address those 3 losses with their first 3 draft picks. However, their 2nd-round pick Bud Clark (safety) is out for the season, and it’s a big ask to expect rookies to step in and replace Pro Bowl-caliber players. Seattle also has a new offensive coordinator, as Klint Kubiak departed for the Raiders' head-coaching job. Our NFL betting charts indicate New England has a notable offensive edge in their QB and overall offensive efficiency metrics. Seattle had the best defense in the NFL last season and has the edge in that regard, but New England’s defense was solid, ranking just outside the top 10. For our wager, we are going to take the +3.5 points behind what should be a highly motivated and improved Patriots roster. We will root for them to either keep this game within a field goal or to win it outright. Enjoy the game and always bet responsibly. 

(9/8 at 12:36pm via ProphetX)

(WIN)