MLB betting charts are updated.

0.25 UNIT

Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Diamondbacks Moneyline (+106)

After a rough start to the season, Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has found his form in July. This month, Pfaadt is 4-0 with a 2.49 ERA while facing quality offenses (Dodgers, Cardinals x2, Padres). Pirates starter Bubba Chandler has similar metrics to Pfaadt over the full-season sample and is coming off one of his best outings of the season, but we prefer the side of Brandon Pfaadt among the starters. Once the starters exit, the Diamondbacks bullpen ranks slightly above the league average, while the Pirates offense ranks 24th. The Pirates hit right-handed pitching better than Arizona. However, Pittsburgh remains without two key pieces in their lineup (Griffin & Cruz). Arizona is much better defensively (8th vs. 18th). At (+106) odds, we like the price on the Diamondbacks moneyline.

(7/28 at 6:44am via Novig)

0.25 UNIT

Phillies @ Marlins

Marlins F5 Innings Moneyline (-122)

This matchup features two right-handed starters in Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantara. Among the two, Alcantara has a FIP and ERA in the 4s while Nola’s FIP and ERA sit in the 5s. Aaron Nola has been the most vulnerable starter in the Phillies rotation for the last two years, and there hasn’t been much encouragement for Nola to turn the corner and get back to his All-Star-caliber form. Miami ranks 14th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching while the Phillies rank 27th in wRC+ versus RHP. The Marlins also have the better bullpen metrics, but it is worth noting that several of their core relievers have pitched back-to-back days. We prefer to back the Marlins through the first 5 innings of the game and key in on the Nola vs. Alcantara matchup. The Marlins' first 5 innings moneyline at (-122) odds is our wager. 

(7/28 at 6:54am via FanDuel)

Rocket Classic Bets:

0.5 UNIT

Cameron Young Top 20 (-125)

Cameron Young has strong experience at Detroit Country Club. He’s played 12 rounds here over the last 5 years, which includes a T-2 in 2022, T-6 in 2024, and T-46 in 2025. He’s gained about 1.8 strokes on the field across the 12 rounds, but enters this tournament off a 2nd place finish at the Open Championship. Young has two outright wins in 2026 (The Players Championship & Cadillac Championship), and has not missed a cut in over a year. We are comfortable with the (-125) price on a top 20 finish for Cameron Young. Our stake is a half unit. 

(7/28 at 7:20am via BetRivers)

0.25 UNIT

J.J. Spaun Top 20 (+170)

J.J. Spaun has played 24 rounds at Detroit Golf Club over the last 5 years, which is tied for the most of any player in the field. He has two top-10 finishes (2022 & 2024), and his worst finish was T-33. Spaun did not play in this event in 2025, but he does enter the tournament in solid form. He finished in the top 40 range in his last two events, but had a nice streak of six top 25 finishes in an eight-event span from late April to July. Our biggest concern with Spaun is his putter, but he has gained strokes on the putting front in his last three events. Spaun is one of the best approach players on tour, which is a key metric that aligns with success at Detroit Country Club. We will bite at the (+170) price for J.J. Spaun to finish insdie the top-20.

(7/28 at 7:22am via BetRivers)

0.25 UNIT

Patrick Cantlay Top 20 (+145)

Patrick Cantlay has one of the stronger track records in the field at Detroit Country Club. He finished T-2 here in 2022, and T-32 in 2025, gaining about 2.1 strokes over the field in his 8 rounds played. Cantlay is in solid form, finishing T28 at the Open Championship in his last event, with top-20 finishes at the Travelers Championship and the Memorial Tournament in June. His putting has been a bit inconsistent, but it’s been trending upward, as he’s gained strokes on the greens in his last 3 events. At (+145) odds, we like the price on Patrick Cantlay to finish inside the top 20 this weekend.

(7/28 at 7:24am via bet365)

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0.25 UNIT

Blue Jays @ Nationals

Nationals F5 Innings Moneyline (-140)

The Blue Jays are starting 42-year-old Max Scherzer today. His last appearance came on June 10th, and Scherzer was rocked by the Phillies, lasting just 3.1 innings while allowing 5 earned runs (2 home runs). Scherzer has made 5 total starts this season, and not only was he hit hard in nearly all of them, but the Blue Jays are 0-5 in those games. Through 22 innings, his FIP is approaching 9, and his ERA is over 10. Mad Max Scherzer is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he hasn’t shown anything that suggests he should still be pitching on a major league roster at this stage of his career. Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez has a FIP in the low 3s through a 50+ inning sample size. Washington has significantly better offensive metrics than Toronto. The lone edge for the Blue Jays is their bullpen, which ranks 8th compared to 28th for the Nationals bullpen. We are going to key in on the Alvarez vs. Scherzer matchup with a first 5 innings wager on the Nationals rather than backing them through the full game. 

(7/27 at 7:15am via DraftKings)

(LOSS)

0.3 UNIT

Yankees @ Phillies

Phillies Moneyline (-160)

Yankees starter Will Warren has not looked sharp over his last handful of outings. He pitched less than an inning against the Pirates on July 22nd, but prior to that he had given up at least 1 home run in five consecutive starts, in addition to a lot of hard contact outside of the home runs. His strikeout rate has dropped substantially throughout July, and overall Warren is in questionable form heading into this start. The Phillies have Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, who remains right in the mix of the NL Cy Young race with a FIP and ERA in the 2s, compared to the 4s for Warren. The Yankees have the better offensive metrics, but their edge will be minimized facing one of the top arms in the MLB. Both teams have strong bullpens, but it is worth noting that one of the Yankees' top relievers (David Bednar) has pitched back-to-back days. We are comfortable laying some juice on the Phillies moneyline tonight. 

(7/26 at 6:56am via Polymarket)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Padres @ Marlins

Padres Moneyline (+113)

This matchup features two right-handed starters with very similar advanced metrics. Janson Junk holds the slightly better ERA, but Walker Buehler holds the slight FIP edge. Both offenses grade out right around the league average in wRC+ versus RHP, with Miami holding the slight edge over the full-season sample. However, the Padres offense has been red hot against righties, ranking 5th in wRC+ this month compared to 10th for Miami. Once the starters exit, the Padres have the bullpen edge and also have their top 2 relievers working on extended rest. San Diego holds the better DRS (defensive runs saved) ranking. At (+113) odds, we will take a flyer on the Padres moneyline.

(7/26 at 6:51am via Novig)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Angels @ Giants

Angels Moneyline (+102)

Angels starter Jose Soriano started the season scorching hot and hit some speed bumps in the early part of the summer. He appears to be getting closer to his early-season form, looking very sharp in his outing. Soriano has pitched much better on the road this season and will face a Giants offense that ranks right around the league average against righties. Giants starter (Whisenhunt) is a lefty with a small sample size, and this is a tough matchup on paper with the Angels offense ranking just outside the top 10 in wRC+ versus LHP. Neither bullpen is particularly reliable, but the Angels bullpen has the slight edge in our power rankings. We like the (+102) price on the Angels moneyline in this matchup. 

(7/26 at 6:54am via Novig)

(WIN)

0.3 UNIT

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov

Magomed Ankalaev By KO/TKO (-140)

Bogdan Guskov steps into this fight on 12 days' notice. Guskov is 18-3 with every single professional victory coming by finish, and he carries a five-fight UFC unbeaten streak. Guskov typically wins fights by walking opponents down, applying forward pressure, and finding the knockout. That said, many of his finishing sequences start from wrestling entries. This style should be difficult against a champion-level fighter in Magomed Ankalaev, who is well equipped to handle the forward pressure and wrestling entries. Ankalaev has defended 87.5% of all opponents' takedown attempts in UFC light heavyweight competition, which is the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class. Ankalaev is rarely put on his backfoot, as he tends to control distance with his kicks, resets constantly, and waits for opponents to overcommit. When they do, his counter-left hand is a dangerous weapon. The KO/TKO prop is appealing because Guskov's aggression and willingness to take risks should create plenty of openings for Ankalaev to land something big. At (-140), we are comfortable with the price on Ankalaev to win by KO/TKO. 

(7/24 at 6:54pm via Fanatics)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Jackson Koivun Top 20 (+175)

Jackson Koivun is one of the highest-upside sleepers in the field. The former World No. 1 amateur makes just his third PGA Tour start as a professional, but few young players arrive with a resume as impressive as his. The Auburn standout swept virtually every major collegiate Player of the Year award and established himself as one of the premier amateur golfers in the world before turning pro. TPC Twin Cities is a course that rewards aggressive players capable of making birdies, and Koivun's game fits that mold perfectly. His elite ball striking, length off the tee, and fearless mentality have already translated against strong competition throughout his amateur career. While he doesn't yet have the PGA Tour statistical sample of many players in this field, his talent rivals that of veterans priced alongside him. With a relatively weak field outside of Scottie Scheffler and several top players taking the week off following The Open Championship, this is an excellent opportunity for Koivun to make an early statement in his professional career. His ceiling is considerably higher than most players in his odds range, making a top 20 finish an appealing value play with significant upside at (+175) odds.

(7/22 at 6:25am via FanDuel)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Tom Kim Top 20 (+170)

Tom Kim quietly profiles as one of the best statistical fits in the entire field. He enters the week leading the field in Strokes Gained: Approach while also ranking top five in Bogey Avoidance, two categories that have consistently identified players who thrive at TPC Twin Cities. Although he missed the cut at The Open Championship, it's easy to overlook that he won the Genesis Scottish Open just one week earlier against one of the strongest fields of the year. His iron game has been among the best on Tour all season, and this course rewards exactly what he does best with precision approach play while creating birdie opportunities. With a significantly weaker field than what he faced overseas, Kim has a clear path to another quality finish. If the putter is merely average, his elite ball striking should keep him in contention throughout the weekend. We like the (+170) price on Tom Kim to finish inside the top 20. 

(7/22 at 6:24am via FanDuel)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Kurt Kitayama Top 20 (+130)

Kurt Kitayama returns to a course where he's enjoyed tremendous success. The defending 3M Open champion also finished T6 here the year prior, making him one of the few players in the field with multiple elite finishes at TPC Twin Cities. His aggressive style is a perfect fit for a course that rewards elite ball striking and birdie-making. Kitayama ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Ball Striking, 18th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and 20th in Bogey Avoidance this season. Those are exactly the metrics that have translated to success at TPC Twin Cities, where five of the seven champions have ranked fourth or better in approach play during their winning week. He's also coming in with excellent form, making 11 consecutive cuts while recording multiple top-10 finishes this season. With proven course history, elite iron play, and a profile built for low-scoring events, Kitayama has every opportunity to once again contend. A top 20 finish feels like one of the strongest bets on the card.

(7/22 at 6:23am via bet365)

(LOSS)