NBA betting charts are updated.

0.5 UNIT

Rockets @ Lakers

Rockets +5.5 (-125)

The Rockets trail 3-1 in this series and would be headed for Cancun with a loss tonight. This Game 5 spread is quite head-scratching. The Rockets played in LA without Kevin Durant in Game 1, and the line closed Rockets -2.5. With Durant in Game 2, the Rockets closed as -5.5 point favorites in LA. KD is expected to be out tonight, and Austin Reaves is expected to return. Reaves is a great player, but adjusting the spread from Rockets -2.5 to Rockets +4.5 doesn’t quite add up. Our NBA betting charts suggest that Houston still holds several key advantages over the Lakers. Aside from three-point shooting, the Rockets hold better advanced metrics both for the full season and in this series. This series has been played at a very slow tempo, making points at more of a premium with an expected low-scoring game. The large majority of public tickets will be on the Lakers' moneyline and spread tonight, and the oddsmakers are well aware. We are going to fade the public and take a contrarian angle with our wager. When betting the NBA, 5 is a key number, so we are going to pay a little extra juice to get on the better side of the 5. Our wager is a half-unit on the Rockets to either keep the game within 5 points or to win it outright. 

(4/29 at 8:14am via ProphetX)

MLB betting charts are updated.

0.3 UNIT

Tigers @ Braves

Tigers Moneyline (-137)

We see a notable pitching edge for the Tigers in this matchup with their ace, Tarik Skubal, on the mound. Braves starter JR Ritchie pitched well in his MLB debut last week, but this will be just the second major league start for the 22-year-old. Ritchie is a righty, and the Tigers' offense ranks 7th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, making this a much tougher matchup on paper than his debut against the Nationals. Ideally, we’d like to key in on the first 5 innings of this game due to the Braves' bullpen edge, but the first 5 innings price is significantly more juiced than the full game price. Our wager is on the Tigers to win this game behind their ace. 

(4/29 at 6:50am via Novig)

0.25 UNIT

Nationals @ Mets

Nationals F5 Innings Moneyline (+117)

Our MLB betting charts paint an interesting pitcher in this matchup. Among the two starters in this game, Cavalli holds the better advanced metrics than Peterson. Cavalli is a righty, and the Mets offense ranks 30th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Peterson is a lefty, and the Nationals' offense ranks top 5 in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Once the starters exit, the Mets have a big edge with their bullpen. For this reason, we will key in on the first 5 innings of this game and back the Nationals at appealing (+117) odds. 

(4/29 at 6:43am via BetRivers)

0.25 UNIT

Royals @ Athletics

Royals F5 Innings Moneyline (+100)

This game features two right-handed starters in Michael Wacha and Luis Severino. Among the two, Wacha holds a FIP in the mid-3s and an ERA in the 2s, while Severino has a FIP approaching 5 and an ERA in the 5s. Both offenses hold very close rankings against right-handed pitching. Defensively, the Royals rank around the league average, while the Athletics rank well below the league average. Once the starters exit, the Athletics have the more reliable bullpen, so we are going to limit our wager on the Royals to the first 5 innings only. 

(4/29 at 7:04am via Novig)

UFC betting charts are updated.

Check back soon.

0.5 UNIT

76ers @ Celtics

76ers +12 (-113)

The Celtics have the opportunity to eliminate the 76ers tonight on their home floor in Boston. While we fully anticipate the Celtics winning and advancing tonight, the 12-point spread caught our attention for a few reasons. First, this series has been played at a very slow tempo, which leads to fewer overall possessions. Boston shot the lights out from three-point range in Games 3 and 4, hitting 20+ threes at a 40%+ clip, well above their season averages. Philly shot nearly 50% from three-point range in Game 2. The three-point shooting discrepancy game by game has largely been the difference in this series, and in the betting spread of each game. If both teams shoot closer to their season averages, it should result in a much closer outcome than we’ve seen through the first 4 games. The 76ers are the healthiest they’ve been with Joel Embiid having a couple of extra days to heal and improve his conditioning. Our wager is a half unit on the 76ers to keep this game within 12 points. 

(4/28 at 11:44am via ProphetX)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Giants @ Phillies

Phillies Moneyline (-155)

It’s been a disastrous few weeks for the Philadelphia Phillies, losing 11 of their last 12 games. However, it’s important to note that all of those losses came against the Braves and Cubs, who look to be two of the better teams in the NL. Our MLB betting charts indicate a notable edge for the Philies in this starting pitching matchup. Luzardo has a worse ERA than Mahle, but Luzardo’s advanced metrics are much better. Mahle has a FIP approaching the 6 mark, while Luzardo’s FIP is in the low 3s. Once the starters exit, the Giants hold the better bullpen metrics, but the Phillies metrics are slightly skewed as they haven’t been in positions to use their top relievers during their losing skid. Philadelphia has a fresh and rested bullpen in tonight’s matchup. From a scheduling standpoint, the Giants had to travel cross-country for this series, which is typically a difficult scheduling spot. Our wager is a half-unit on the Phillies' moneyline. 

(4/28 at 8:15am via ProphetX)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Nationals @ Mets

Mets Moneyline (-163)

The New York Mets were just swept by the Rockies at home and aren’t too far removed from a 12-game losing streak. As bad as the Mets' offense has been, this is a highly favorable matchup against a starting pitcher with extremely poor metrics. Zach Littell has a FIP above 8 paired with an ERA in the 7s. Behind Littell, the Nationals hold the 28th-ranked bullpen. If the Mets aren’t able to score runs and take advantage of a significant pitching edge, it would be quite surprising despite their recent poor play. We are comfortable laying the juice on the New York Mets moneyline.

(4/28 at 8:22am via Polymarket)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Tigers @ Braves

Tigers F5 Innings Moneyline (+110)

Our MLB betting charts indicate an advantage for the Tigers in this starting pitching matchup. Both starters have good ERAs, but Detroit’s Mize holds a FIP in the 2s compared to the 4s for Perez. The Braves have a slight offensive edge, but that advantage should not be overly significant while the starters are in the game. Atlanta has the best bullpen metrics in the league right now and will hold a pitching edge in the later innings of this game. For this reason, we are going to limit our wager on the Tigers to the first 5 innings only at appealing (+110) odds. 

(4/28 at 8:20am via BetRivers)

(LOSS)

0.25 UNIT

Yankees @ Rangers

Rangers Moneyline (+108)

The Yankees carry good momentum into this game, having won 9 of their last 10. They took the opener of this series last night, 4-2. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Yankees, who will be playing their 3rd consecutive road series and 8th consecutive road game. The Rangers are at the opposite end of the scheduling spectrum, having been at home for the last three series with no travel. This game has two very good starters in Cam Schlittler and Jacob deGrom. The Rangers hold the better bullpen metrics once the starters exit. Texas also holds a defensive edge with a better DRS ranking. This game should primarily feature right-handed pitching, and both offenses hit righties well. In what looks to be very close to a 50-50 matchup, we like the (+108) odds on the Rangers. 

(4/28 at 8:29am via Novig)

(LOSS)