0.25 UNIT

Tigers @ Orioles

Tigers -0.5 F5 Innings (-143)

Detroit will start reigning AL Cy Young winner and current favorite, Tarik Skubal. The Tigers ace holds a dominant 1.86 FIP over 83.1 innings. While the Orioles offense is strong against right-handed pitching (6th in wRC+), they've struggled significantly against lefties, sitting at 29th in wRC+. Considering that Skubal is an elite lefty, this a tough matchup for the Orioles offense on paper. The Tigers lineup ranks 6th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which is an ideal matchup against Orioles lefty Keegan Akin. Detroit has a much better DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ranking. Once Tarik Skubal exits this game, the offensive advantage will tilt toward the Orioles side. Both bullpens primarily feature righties, and the Orioles hit righties much better. For this reason, we are going to limit our wager to the first 5 innings of the game. In order for our ticket to cash, the Tigers must be winning at the conclusion of the 5th inning.

(6/11 at 12:35pm via BetRivers)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Braves @ Brewers

Braves Moneyline (-164)

On the mound for the Braves is Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP). Schwellenbach has a strong FIP of 3.26 across 80.2 innings, indicating a pitcher who limits hard contact and prevents walks effectively. The Brewers counter with Chad Patrick, who is a righty with a solid 3.23 FIP over 69.2 innings. While the starting pitching matchup is close, we see several key advantages for the Braves. Atlanta’s bullpen has a notable edge over the Brewers bullpen. This game should primarily feature right-handed pitching, and the Braves hit righties better than Milwaukee. Atlanta has the #1 ranked defense in the MLB compared to an average DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ranking for the Brewers. Our wager is a half unit on the Braves moneyline.

(6/11 at 11:34am via FanDuel)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Yankees @ Royals

Royals Moneyline (+110)

The Royals present a compelling case to cash as home underdogs today against the Yankees. Royals starting pitcher, Kris Bubic (LHP), has been nothing short of outstanding. He holds a FIP of 2.45 over 75.1 innings, suggesting he's been exceptionally effective in every aspect of pitching. This guy is an under the radar, elite-level pitcher, just as his numbers suggest. Behind Bubic, the Royals hold a solid bullpen ranked 11th in the league. The Yankees have a potent offense, ranking first in wRC+ against both right and left handed pitching. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has not been consistent this season, nor has their bullpen. In what looks to be much closer to a 50-50 matchup, we like the (+110) price on the home underdogs.

(6/11 at 11:43am via Bet365)

(LOSS)

0.25 UNIT

Rangers @ Twins

Twins Moneyline (-145)

In the series finale, the Minnesota Twins look to capitalize on their home field against the Texas Rangers. The Twins will send out David Festa (RHP) with a FIP of 4.51 over 16.2 innings. Festa is supported by a bullpen that ranks 12th in the league. Rangers starter Jack Leiter has similar advanced pitching metrics with a 4.22 FIP, backed by a top 10 bullpen. The advantage we see for the Twins in this matchup is with their offense. This game will primarily feature right-handed pitching, and the Twins rank 11th in wRC+ versus righties compared to 27th for Texas. We are going to lean on Minnesota’s offensive edge with a wager on the Twins moneyline.

(6/11 at 11:51am via Caesars)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Harris English Top 30 Finish (+150)

Harris English has already recorded a win on tour this season at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has a strong track record in the U.S. Open, finishing in the top 10 in three of his last five appearances. English finished T-2nd at the PGA Championship in mid-May and has finished inside the top 15 in three of his last four events. English is one of the best players on Tour at minimizing damage on the green. He ranks inside the top 20 in three-putt avoidance, which is a key metric to consider with difficult greens at Oakmont. At (+150) odds, we like the price on a top 30 finish for Harris English.

(6/10 at 7:49am via DraftKings)

0.25 UNIT

Sepp Straka Top 30 Finish (+100)

Sepp Straka is in strong form heading into this event. He finished 3rd at the Memorial Tournament in his last event played. He won the Truist Championship in May and had two top 15 finishes prior to that at the Zurich Classic and RBC Heritage events. Straka did miss the cut at the Masters due to a disastrous first round, and again at the PGA Championship due to a poor first round. It will be key that Straka gets out to a fast start this week, but given his struggles in the last two majors, we expect Sepp to be locked in out of the gate. Straka ranks 1st on tour in driving accuracy, 8th in ball striking, and 9th in total driving. He also maintains strong putting metrics, which will be key at Oakmont. Our wager is on Sepp Straka to finish inside the top 30.

(6/10 at 7:57am via DraftKings)

0.25 UNIT

Shane Lowry Top 30 Finish (-110)

Shane Lowry is coming off of a top 15 finish at the RBC Canadian Open last week. He’s finished inside the top 30 in five of his last six events played. The lone exception was the PGA Championship, where Lowry missed the cut. Lowry has two top 10 finishes in the U.S. Open and has finished inside the top 20 in his last two U.S. Opens. He led the tournament in 2016 by four shots after 54 holes but was ultimately caught by Dustin Johnson and finished 2nd. Given his track record and experience, Lowry looks like a solid bet for a top 30 finish at (-110) odds.

(6/10 at 10:29am via DraftKings)

0.25 UNIT

Justin Thomas Top 30 Finish (-105)

Justin Thomas has two top 20 finishes in the U.S. Open. JT has had a somewhat inconsistent season to this point, but he has consistently been hovering around the top 30 range. He’s finished inside the top 40 in nine of his last ten events played. He has six top 10 finishes and four top 5 finishes. We like the (-105) price on Justin Thomas to finish top 30 or better.

(6/11 at 2:17pm via DraftKings)

0.1 UNIT

Jon Rahm To Win (+1200)

Jon Rahm enters this event having finished inside the top 10 in every LIV event this year. He has a proven track record, having already won two major championships throughout his career (U.S. Open in 2021 & the Masters in 2023). Rahm finished 14th at the Masters this year and 8th at the PGA Championship back in May. While Scottie Scheffler is the rightful betting favorite for this event, we simply can’t get behind (+275) odds on Scottie. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, Rahm looks to be one of the best value selections among the elite players. Our wager is a small one on Jon Rahm to win at (+1200) odds.

(6/11 at 2:11pm via Caesars)

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley

Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline

(WIN)

Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison

Kayla Harrison Moneyline

(WIN)

Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Joe Pyfer Moneyline

(WIN)

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Patchy Mix Moneyline

(LOSS)

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

Kevin Holland Moneyline

(WIN)

Joshua Van vs. Bruno Silva

Joshua Van Moneyline

(WIN)

Serghei Spivac vs. Cortes Cortes Acosta

Serghei Spivac Moneyline

(LOSS)

Wang Cong vs. Ariane Da Silva

Ariane Da Silva Moneyline

(LOSS)

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley

Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline

(WIN)

Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison

Kayla Harrison Moneyline

(WIN)

Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix

Mario Bautista Moneyline

(WIN)

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

Kevin Holland Moneyline

(WIN)

Joshua Van vs. Bruno Silva

Bruno Silva Moneyline

(LOSS)

Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Waldo Cortes-Acosta Moneyline

(WIN)

Wang Cong vs. Ariane Da Silva

Wang Cong Moneyline

(WIN)

Jeka Saragih vs. Joo Sang Yoo

Jeka Saragih Moneyline

(LOSS)

Quillan Salkilld vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Quillan Salkilld Moneyline

(WIN)