NBA betting charts are updated.

0.5 UNIT

Knicks @ Spurs

Spurs -5 (-110)

The Spurs suffered a historic collapse in Game 4, blowing a 29-point second-half lead and allowing the largest comeback in NBA Finals history. San Antonio is now in a must-win situation at home in Game 5. While New York now holds a commanding 3-1 lead, it’s important to acknowledge that this series is also just a few plays from being 3-1 Spurs. San Antonio has held double-digit leads in every game of the series. Our NBA betting charts still indicate the Spurs holding better offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Despite the Spurs dropping the first two games on their home floor, they’ve been an excellent home team over the full sample size of the season/postseason. Only the Thunder had a better home record than the Spurs this season, and the Spurs average an 8+ point margin of victory at home. The Knicks are certainly in the driver's seat to win the series, only needing one more win to become champions. However, keep in mind that San Antonio would be a multi-possession betting favorite in two of the remaining three games. If the Spurs win Game 5, they will likely be less than a possession underdogs in Game 6 based on the spreads in Games 3 & 4 in New York. We like the Spurs' chances of winning Game 5 decisively, covering the 5-point spread, and pushing this series back to New York for Game 6. Enjoy the game and always bet responsibly. 

(6/11 at 7:39am via Fanatics)

MLB betting charts are updated.

0.25 UNIT

Padres @ Orioles

Padres Moneyline (+118)

It’s important to note that the Orioles have a notable offensive edge in this matchup. However, San Diego’s starter has the better metrics, and their bullpen has a significant advantage if this game is close in the later innings. All of the Padres top relievers are fresh, which should make things very difficult for the Baltimore offense down the stretch of the game. Among the starters, Padres Vasquez has a better FIP and ERA than Orioles starter Trey Gibson, whose FIP is approaching 6. In what appears to be very close to a 50-50 matchup, we will take a small flyer on the Padres at appealing (+118) odds. 

(6/13 at 8:06am via Novig)

0.25 UNIT

Cubs @ Giants

Cubs Moneyline (-117)

This game features two right-handed starters in Ben Brown and Trevor McDonald. The Cubs' Brown has extremely impressive metrics, with a FIP and ERA in the 1s. McDonald holds a FIP in the mid-3s and ERA in the 4s. Both starters are righties, and the Cubs' offense holds the slightly better wRC+ ranking against right-handed pitching. Chicago also has advantages in its bullpen and defense. Our wager is a small one on the Cubs moneyline. 

(6/13 at 8:20am via Polymarket)

UFC betting charts are updated.

0.75 UNIT

Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi

O'Malley To Win & Round 2 To Start (-190)

Sean O'Malley enters this fight as a sizable favorite against Aiemann Zahabi. Most books have O’Malley priced in the -400 to -500 range, reflecting a clear edge in speed, range management, striking ability, and overall athleticism. The challenge for bettors is that Zahabi is one of the most durable and defensively responsible fighters in the bantamweight division. He enters this matchup on a lengthy winning streak and has built his recent success around disciplined boxing, patience, and avoiding major mistakes. Zahabi is not the type of fighter who typically gets reckless and walks into a knockout during the opening minutes. From O'Malley's perspective, we've also seen a shift in his recent approach. Rather than chasing highlight-reel finishes from the opening bell, he's become more measured and tactical, using his length, footwork, and shot selection to break opponents down over time. In his most recent fight, O’Malley seemed to find his timing and hit his flow state with his striking in rounds 2/3. Additionally, the outdoor setting at the White House could encourage a slightly slower feeling-out process early. Fighters are dealing with an extremely unique outdoor environment that cannot be replicated in training. Look for O'Malley to spend the first round establishing range, collecting reads, and gradually separating himself with volume and precision. Zhabi may look to wrestle early to neutralize O’Malley’s advantages on the feet. Our favorite bet in this fight is O’Malley to win, and the fight to start round 2.

(6/11 at 8:40am via Fanatics)

0.5 UNIT

Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane

Fight To End By KO/TKO (-155)

The betting market currently has this fight to end by knockout at (-155), implying roughly a 60% probability. Our projections have this fight ending by KO/TKO with a probability closer to 65%, which translates to roughly (-190) odds. Alex Pereira is one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA history and carries fight-ending ability in every exchange. Ciryl Gane also brings legitimate finishing equity to the table. Although he is often viewed as a technical point fighter, Gane has repeatedly shown the ability to overwhelm opponents with volume, accuracy, and accumulated damage. From a stylistic standpoint, this projects as a striking-heavy matchup. Neither fighter is expected to build their game plan around wrestling or prolonged grappling exchanges, which should result in extended periods spent at striking range. That is especially important at heavyweight, where power carries differently, and a single mistake can instantly end a fight. When we combine Pereira's elite knockout ability, Gane's underrated finishing potential, and the historically high knockout rate in heavyweight fights, we arrive at a projected knockout probability that is meaningfully higher than the 60% implied by the current market price. Our wager is a half-unit on the fight ending by KO/TKO, regardless of who is on the receiving end. 

(6/12 at 1:42pm via BetRivers)

0.3 UNIT

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

Over 1.5 Rounds (-105)

At first glance, this matchup looks like an early knockout waiting to happen. Both fighters are elite finishers with a combined finishing rate above 80%, and neither is known for taking a backward step. However, this over 1.5 rounds prop only requires the fight to reach the midway point of round 2. Justin Gaethje has been involved in countless wars throughout his UFC career, but he remains one of the toughest fighters in the sport and has consistently survived dangerous early moments against elite competition. Even in fights against powerful finishers, he is rarely overwhelmed in the opening few minutes and has built a reputation for making opponents work deep into fights. Gaethje’s only career first-round loss came by submission against Charles Oliveira. ALl 3 of Gaethje’s knockout losses were in round 3 or later. From Topuria's perspective, his path to victory may not be as reckless as many expect. As an undefeated champion and a significant betting favorite, he has no reason to force exchanges early against one of the most dangerous counter-strikers in the sport. Topuria's boxing, defensive awareness, and patience have all improved as he's climbed the ranks, and it would not be surprising to see him spend the opening round gathering reads before increasing the pressure throughout the fight. The unique outdoor environment at the White House could also contribute to a slower start. Fighters are entering an atmosphere unlike anything they have previously experienced. The unusual setting could lead to a more measured opening round before the action escalates. This wager can still cash if Topuria scores the knockout many expect, as long as it comes after the midway point of round 2. In the event that Gaethje takes this fight into deep waters, this ticket would cash. The fight to go over 1.5 rounds (7.5 minutes) is our wager.

(6/11 at 8:26am via Novig)

0.25 UNIT

Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal

Daukaus Moneyline (+305)

The betting market still appears to be pricing the former Penn State wrestling phenom, Bo Nickal, as the future face of the middleweight division. However, Kyle Daukaus is a very unique opponent for Nickal. We saw Reinier de Ridder put out the blueprint to beat Bo. In his loss to de Ridder, Nickal struggled when forced into extended grappling exchanges against a larger, more experienced MMA fighter, who also presents danger on the feet. Daukaus is exactly the type of opponent who can test those areas. Unlike many of Nickal's previous opponents, Daukaus owns extensive UFC experience, has a black belt-level submission game, and has finished 12 of his 17 career wins by submission. He is comfortable in scrambles, dangerous from every position, and has spent years competing against elite UFC competition. The striking of Daukaus has also looked to have improved, not too far removed from a big knockout against Michel Pereira. While Nickal bounced back impressively in his last fight, questions remain about how he handles high-level grapplers who aren't intimidated by his wrestling pedigree. The market is largely pricing this fight based on Nickal's upside and wrestling credentials, while potentially overlooking how much Daukaus has improved. From a pure value perspective, the line is difficult to ignore, getting Daukaus at (+305). This implies roughly a 24% probability of winning. Betting is about price, not simply picking winners. At current odds, Daukaus is a worthwhile underdog to get behind.

(6/10 at 8:43am via Novig)

0.3 UNIT

Mariners @ Nationals

Mariners Moneyline (-132)

Nationals starter Zach Littell is not a pitcher that we want to put our money behind right now. His ERA is in the high 4s, but his FIP is in the mid-6s, which is a red flag. In comparison, Mariners starter Bryce Miller has a 1.33 ERA and 2.10 FIP. Both starters are righties, and Seattle ranks 2nd in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching compared to 13th for the Nationals. Once the starters exit, the Mariners have a top 5-ranked bullpen, while the Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the MLB (29th). We are comfortable with the (-132) price on the Mariners moneyline given these advantages. 

(6/12 at 10:16am via Novig)

(WIN)

0.3 UNIT

Marlins @ Pirates

Pirates F5 Innings Moneyline (-138)

This game features two right-handed starters in Sandy Alcantara and Braxton Ashcraft. While the former Cy Young winner Alcantara has the better name value, Ashcraft has a better FIP & ERA and will benefit from pitching on his home mound. The Pirates' offense ranks 3rd in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching compared to 21st for Miami’s offense. Pittsburgh ranks above the league average in DRS (defensive runs saved) while the Marlins rank 27th defensively. Miami has the better bullpen, so we are going to eliminate the later innings from our wager and back the Pirates through the first 5 innings only. 

(6/12 at 10:05am via Novig)

(PUSH)

0.3 UNIT

Diamondbacks @ Reds

Diamondbacks Moneyline (+100)

This is a lefty-on-lefty starting pitching matchup. Arizona’s Rodriguez has notably better metrics than Reds starter Nick Lodolo. Rodriguez has a 78.2-inning sample size, with a FIP in the 3s and an ERA in the mid-2s, providing quality outings on a consistent basis. Nick Lodolo is a pitcher who is certainly capable of a dominant outing, but he hasn’t put it together in 2026 through 32.2 innings (6.50 FIP & 5.51 ERA). The Diamondbacks hit left-handed pitching very well, ranking 4th in wRC+ versus lefties compared to 13th for the Reds. Defensively, Arizona ranks in the top 10 in DRS (defensive runs saved) while Cincinnati ranks 26th. At plus money, we like the price on the Diamondbacks. 

(6/12 at 10:19am via Polymarket)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Spurs @ Knicks

Knicks Moneyline (-117)

The Knicks dropped Game 3 but still lead the series 2-1. The Knicks find themselves in a situation where a win puts them one game away from an NBA title and guarantees New York an opportunity at a home close-out game. A loss would even the series and swing home-court advantage back to the Spurs, shifting the betting odds back to San Antonio as the favorite in the series. The situational angle in Game 4 favors New York. Teams facing a 2-2 series tie after holding a 2-0 lead often approach Game 4 as a must-win. The Knicks certainly understand the importance of avoiding a best-of-three series against a Spurs team that would completely regain momentum with another road win. The Madison Square Garden atmosphere remains an extremely tough road environment. Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle were outstanding in Game 3, but it’s difficult to expect another near-perfect performance from the Spurs' core contributors. In what we expect to be another highly competitive game, the Knicks are the more experienced group in late-game situations and have a true closer on the floor in Brunson. Our wager is on the Knicks moneyline.

(6/10 at 8:31am via Polymarket)

(WIN)