0.5 UNIT

Pistons @ Raptors

Pistons -3.5 (-104)

Our NBA betting charts indicate several key advantages for the Pistons in this matchup. Detroit has a notable offensive edge (9th vs 18th), defensive edge (2nd vs 11th), and a significant rebounding advantage (5th vs 17th). Backing the Pistons on the road has been a profitable spot this season (18-14 ATS), whereas the Raptors have struggled to cover spreads at home, posting a 14-20 ATS record. The Pistons won the first matchup in Toronto 113-95, and appear to match up well with this Raptors roster. Our wager is a half unit on the Pistons to win this game by more than a possession. 

(3/15 at 8:04am via ProphetX)

0.5 UNIT

Purdue vs. Michigan

Purdue +7 (-110)

These two teams played at Purdue in mid-February, with Michigan winning 91-80 as a 2.5-point favorite. Mackey Arena is valued at slightly over 3 points on KenPom, projecting this spread in the 5.5-6 range on a neutral court. It’s worth noting that Purdue had to play one additional game, which is baked into the current 7-point spread. Michigan holds the top defense in the nation and certainly has an edge over Purdue in that regard, but Purdue holds a very slight offensive edge (2nd vs. 8th). While Michigan is a rightful favorite in this matchup, getting 7 points with an offense as potent as Purdue's is a wager we are willing to make. The Boilermakers look to be playing some of their best basketball of the season in this Big Ten Conference Tournament, with three consecutive wins of 2 possessions or more over Northwestern, Nebraska, and UCLA. Michigan has won its two games in this tournament by a combined 7 points (Ohio State & Wisconsin), and both of those teams are a tier down from Purdue. Our wager is a half unit on Purdue +7. 

(3/15 at 8:28am via Caesars)

Sean Brady's Picks Record:

2026 - 27-11 (+5.7 Units)

*All picks graded as a 1 unit risk.

Joe Pyfer's Picks Record:

2026 - 23-25 (-9.6 Units)

2025 - 239-174 (+23.1 Units)

*All picks graded as a 1 unit risk.

Ricky's Current Season Records:

NCAAB: 10-8-1 (+1.7 Units)

NCAAB:

0.5 UNIT

Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas

Vanderbilt Moneyline (-133)

*3/15 8:42am via Polymarket

COMPLETED SEASONS:

NFL: 69-60 +5.9 Units (25/26)

CBB: 34-28 +3.2 Units (24/25)

NFL: 55-39 +8.2 Units (24/25)

CBB: 47-45 +1.2 Units (23/24)

NFL: 66-41 +21.2 Units (23/24)

MLB: 21-16 +2.6 Units (23)

NBA: 37-40 -2.2 Units (22/23)

CBB: 46-30 +21.3 Units (22/23)

NFL: 67-40 +16.5 Units (22/23)

MLB: 17-20 -3.3 Units (22)

NBA: 45-32 +16.6 Units (21/22)

CBB: 42-37 +1.7 Units (21/22)

NFL: 50-31 +32.2 Units (21/22)

PGA: 16-69 +23.9 Units (21)

MLB: 52-37 +10.9 Units (21)

NBA: 70-55 +28.6 Units (20/21)

CBB: 73-57 +27.5 Units (20/21)

NFL: 65-37 +21.9 Units (20/21)

NFL DRAFT HISTORY:

2025 DRAFT: 2-12 -2.3 Units

2024 DRAFT: 7-2 +2.3 Units

2023 DRAFT: 8-3 +3.6 Units

2022 DRAFT: 5-2 +5.3 Units

2021 DRAFT: 4-2 +4.0 Units

2020 DRAFT: 7-7 +13.9 Units

Tom's Current Season Records:

PGA: 9-33 (-5.7 Units)

COMPLETED SEASONS:

NFL: 61-44 +18.0 Units (25/26)

MLB: 37-39 -3.3 Units (23)

NFL: 49-53 +2.1 Units (22/23)

MLB: 30-46 -18.5 Units (22)

NFL: 31-51 -29.5 Units (21/22)

MLB: 127-113 +30.8 Units (21)

NFL: 60-54 +1.0 Units (20/21)

ALL TIME RECORDS:

Tennis - 229-207 +19.8 Units

Nascar - 66-142 +15.5 Units

PGA - 172-559 -18.0 Units

0.5 UNIT

Virginia vs. Duke

Virginia +8.5 (-115)

Duke closed as a 10-point home favorite in the regular season matchup, with the Blue Devils winning by a blowout 77-51. Duke’s home court edge is valued between 3-3.5 points via KenPom, suggesting the spread should be in the 6.5 to 7 range on a neutral court. While that first matchup was very ugly and may warrant an adjustment from oddsmakers from the initial number, it’s key to note that Virginia had one of its worst shooting performances of the season. It’s also key to note that Duke is without two starters in this ACC Tournament. It’s possible that oddsmakers like this matchup for Duke regardless of those absences, but we struggle to calculate why this spread is approaching 3 possessions. Our wager is a half unit on Virginia +8.5.

(3/14 at 10:02am via FanDuel)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Houston vs. Arizona

Houston +3 (-113)

Arizona won the first matchup 73-66 on the road as a +5.5 point underdog. However, Arizona was also without a key player in that first matchup (Koa Peat), which contributed to that 5.5 spread. Houston’s home court is valued at approximately +3 points, and we valued the injury to Koa Peat between 1-2 points, putting our projected spread on a neutral court very close to a pick em’. Early action has pushed the opener 1 point toward Houston. Arizona ranks top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but Houston isn’t far behind, ranking 5th defensively and just outside the top 15 on offense. In what we anticipate will be a highly competitive game from wire to wire, we prefer to have a full possession cushion with Houston. Our wager is a half unit on Houston +3.

(3/14 at 8:11am via ProphetX)

(LOSS)

0.5 UNIT

Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee

Vanderbilt Moneyline (+101)

These teams played twice in the regular season, with each team winning on the road. Both teams closed as 3.5-point favorites on their home court, suggesting this spread should be right around a pick 'em on a neutral court. Early action hit the Vandy side, creating a dog-to-favorite flip, but the line has since flipped back to Vandy as a slight dog. Vanderbilt has a top 10-ranked offense, paired with a defense that ranks just outside the top 25. Tennessee’s offense ranks outside the top 30, but the Vols do have the slight defensive edge. We prefer the (+101) price behind the better offense. 

(3/13 at 11:58am via Novig)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Purdue vs. Nebraska

Purdue -3.5 (-114)

Purdue had a disappointing 2-4 finish to the regular season, but played well in their opening game of the Big Ten Tournament with a double-digit win over Northwestern. Purdue beat Nebraska 80-77 on the road as a +1.5 point underdog in the regular season. The Boilermakers have the 2nd-ranked offense in the nation, while Nebraska’s offense ranks outside the top 50. The Cornhuskers started the season 20-0, but were just above a .500 team down the stretch. Our wager is a half unit on Purdue -3.5.

(3/13 at 12:03pm via BetRivers)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

UCLA vs. Michigan State

UCLA +6 (-117)

UCLA was blown out 82-59 on the road against Michigan State in the regular-season matchup. The Bruins closed as +8-point underdogs in that matchup. Given that Michigan State has a strong home court edge at the Breslin Center valued over +3 points, we projected this line in the 4.5 to 5.5 range. UCLA is playing its best basketball of the season right now, going 5-1 in its last 6 games with notable wins over Illinois and Nebraska. Michigan State’s biggest edge in this matchup is on the glass, but UCLA has a slight offensive edge in terms of their efficiency and shooting. We will take the two-possession cushion with a quality Bruins team that should be highly motivated to get every win they can get in this tournament. 

(3/13 at 12:09pm via ProphetX)

(WIN)

1.5 UNIT

Jose Delgado vs. Andre Fili

1u - Delgado By Finish (-130)

0.5u - Delgado By KO/Decision (-165)

Jose Delgado enters this matchup with a clear statistical and physical edge over Andre Fili. Delgado owns a +2.78 significant strike differential, while Fili sits at -0.36, meaning Delgado consistently lands far more strikes than he absorbs, whereas Fili tends to be slightly out-landed in his fights. Delgado is also far more efficient offensively, landing 54% of his strikes compared to Fili’s 37%, which suggests cleaner shot selection and better accuracy in exchanges. Power and finishing potential also favor Delgado. He holds a 4:1 knockdown ratio, while Fili’s knockdown ratio is an even 6:6, indicating Delgado creates damaging moments more consistently. Delgado has a 2.42 knockdown average compared to a 0.34 knockdown average for Fili. At just 27 years old, Delgado is almost nine years younger than the 35-year-old Fili, and that youth shows up in the metrics. While Fili has more UFC experience and slightly stronger grappling control metrics, Delgado’s speed, accuracy, and striking advantage should dictate where the fight takes place. We are going with two separate wagers in this matchup. The first is Jose Delgado to win by finish, and consider that every single one of his professional MMA wins has come inside the distance. Our second wager is a slight hedge on the outcome if this fight goes to decision, paired with a KO/TKO in the double chance market, which gives both bets a path to hit with a knockout. In a perfect world, a Jose Delgado knockout cashes us in big. Our total risk is 1.5 units, with 1 unit on the finish and a half unit on the Decision/KO double chance.

(3/11 at 8:25am via Fanatics)

(SPLIT)

0.5 UNIT

Suns @ Raptors

Raptors -4 (-111)

This is a favorable scheduling spot for the Toronto Raptors, who will have a rest-and-travel advantage in this matchup. Phoenix is in the back end of a back-to-back with travel, and this will be the Suns 3rd consecutive road game. The Raptors hold slight edges in offensive and defensive efficiency, and hold a significant advantage with their assist-to-turnover ratio. We like the Raptors' chances of ending the Suns' 4-game win streak, and doing so by more than 4 points. Our stake is a half unit. 

(3/13 at 8:11am via ProphetX)

(WIN)

NCAAB:

0.5 UNIT

Vanderbilt vs. Florida

Vanderbilt +8.5 (-107)

*3/14 9:05am via BetRivers

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

St. John's vs. UConn

St. John's +3 (-107)

*3/14 9:05am via ProphetX

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Wisconsin vs. Illinis

Wisconsin +8.5 (-110)

*3/13 9:56am via Caesars

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee

Vanderbilt Moneyline (+100)

*3/13 9:56am via Caesars

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Arizona vs. Iowa State

Arizona -4 (-110)

*3/13 9:56am via Caesars

(LOSS)

Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos

Gillian Robertson Moneyline

(WIN)