Free Pick Results 1/26/26:

NBA:

0.5 UNIT

Magic @ Cavaliers

Cavaliers -5 (-113)

Our NBA betting charts indicate several key advantages for the Cavaliers in this matchup. Cleveland holds a notable offensive edge, ranking 5th in our offensive power rankings compared to 23rd for the Magic. Orlando is averaging 111 points per 100 possessions compared to 114 for the Cavs offense. Defensively, the Cavs are allowing fewer points per 100 possessions. The game is being played in Cleveland, which is worth about 2-3 points depending on how you value it, but certainly somewhere in that range. The Cavs are playing much better basketball right now, having won three straight games compared to three consecutive losses for the Magic. These teams played on Saturday in Orlando, and the Cavs won outright (119-105) as +1.5 point underdogs. Cleveland does have a couple of key players on the injury report, but Orlando remains without Franz Wagner. Our wager is a half unit on the Cavs -5.

(1/26 at 10:13am via BetRivers)

(WIN)

Free Pick Results 1/25/26:

NFL:

0.5 UNIT

Rams @ Seahawks

Seahawks -2 (-108)

This will be the 3rd matchup between these two teams this season. Each team won its home game by 2 points or less. The combined score from both regular-season games was 1 point (58-57). It’s worth noting that Seahawks QB Sam Darnold has thrown 6 interceptions in those two matchups with 2 touchdowns. Matthew Stafford had 5 TD passes and 0 interceptions in those two games. On one hand, Stafford’s metrics versus Darnold’s in these matchups speak loudly. On the other hand, it’s a bit concerning that the Rams only had a 1-point differential despite those two extremes in QB production. Each team has a top-tier defense, with the Seahawks holding the slightly better overall defensive power ranking (1st versus 4th). The Rams have better offensive metrics, ranking 1st in OEM (offensive efficiency), while the Seahawks rank 15th. From a coaching and experience standpoint, Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford have been here before, with both having already won a Super Bowl in their Rams tenures. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald and QB Sam Darnold both had their first playoff game last week. Sean McVay is 2-0 in conference championship games. Matthew Stafford is 6-1 against the Seahawks since joining the Rams, with the lone loss being the most recent Week 16 overtime matchup in Seattle, where the Rams blew a 16-point 4th-quarter lead. Blowing leads has been a concerning theme with the Rams in several of their losses this season. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald and QB Sam Darnold have been on the better side of several come-from-behind victories this season. While Sam Darnold has struggled at times in big moments throughout his career, Darnold has been very good in the do-or-die moments this season. Our final note in this game is the favorable scheduling spot for the Seahawks compared to an extremely difficult one for the Rams. Seattle had a bye week in the wild-card round and played at home last week with no travel in the playoffs. The Rams have gone from Carolina to Chicago (in overtime), and now to Seattle in three consecutive road games. The Seahawks should be the fresher team and will have their home crowd behind them. Our wager is a half unit on the Seahawks -2. 

(1/25 at 10:49am via Novig)

(WIN)

Free Pick Results 1/24/26:

UFC:

0.75 UNIT

Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong

Sean O'Malley Moneyline (-192)

Sean O’Malley is coming off back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili, but this looks to be a favorable matchup for the Suga Show. Song Yadong is a tremendous talent in this Bantamweight division, but he has aggressive tendencies that favor a long-range counter striker and sniper like O’Malley. Yadong takes a lot of damage in his fights, averaging 4 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Sean O’Malley averages over 6 significant strikes landed per minute, holding some of the best striking volume metrics in the entire UFC. O’Malley has a much better significant striking differential, far better striking accuracy and defense, and a better knockdown average. Song’s camp has been vocal in the media that they want him to use his grappling and wrestling in this matchup with O’Malley. Whether or not this is true, O’Malley has good scrambling metrics getting back to his feet after being taken down, and if you remove the Merab fights, O’Malley has been phenomenal at avoiding being controlled on the ground. Sean O’Malley has a notable height and reach advantage. We see a clear path to victory on the scorecards with O”Malley’s striking edge, but he also has rare one-shot knockout power for this division. For this reason, our wager is on the moneyline, which covers any method of victory for Sean O’Malley. 

(1/22 at 6:12am via Novig)

(WIN)