Free Pick Of The Day:

MLB:

0.25 UNIT

Giants @ Phillies 6:05pm

Giants Moneyline (+160)

The Phillies are red hot right now, winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Giants are just 3-5 in their last 8. While the Phillies are a rightful home favorite, betting the MLB is all about grabbing value when it presents itself. We will lose plenty of these bets throughout the season, but the idea is that over a large sample size, betting value comes out on top. Giants starter Keaton Winn has been pitching well this season. Winn has not allowed more than 5 hits in any of his 6 starts, and his FIP and ERA metrics are very solid. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been nothing short of fantastic this season. The Phillies have won all 6 of Suarez starts, and he holds a 5-0 record with an ERA in the 1’s and a FIP in the 2’s. Outside of his first start of the season against the Braves, Suarez has not faced very good offenses. The Giants lineup is loaded with right handed hitters, which can be tough for opposing lefty pitchers. The (+160) odds imply roughly a 38% win probability for the Giants. In a game that our metrics suggest is much closer than that, we will grab the value with the underdogs.

(5/4 at 10:21am via BetRivers)

Free Pick Results 5/3/24:

MLB:

0.25 UNIT

Tigers @ Yankees 7:05pm

Tigers Moneyline (+142)

While the Yankees are a rightful home favorite with an offensive edge in this matchup, this (+142) price is a bit too steep for us to pass on. Yankees starter Marcus Stroman started out the season very hot, but he has cooled off in a big way. Stroman has allowed at least 1 home run in each of his last 4 starts. His FIP has consistently been regressing. Stroman also walked 5 batters in his most recent start, and did not look to have good command of his pitches. Tigers starter Reese Olson has an 0-4 record, but that is extremely misleading. Olson has very good advanced pitching metrics, and has a much better FIP than Stroman. Olson pitched 7 strong innings, striking out 8 Royals in his last start, but the Tigers have failed to provide him with run support. Both teams have strong bullpens, but we’d make a strong argument that the 0-4 Olson is the better starting pitching option. We will take a quarter unit flier on the Tigers to win.
(5/3 at 10:39am via FanDuel)

(LOSS)

Free Pick Results 5/2/24:

MLB:

0.25 UNIT

Astros vs. Guardians 8:10pm

Astros Moneyline (-130)

It’s key to note that Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti is making his 4th career MLB start. The 24 year old righty is 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA, which looks really bad on paper. The Astros certainly didn’t ease Arrighetti into MLB action. His first 3 starts came against the Royals, Braves, and Cubs. Each of those teams has a strong offense, and two of those outings were on the road for the rookie. While Spencer Arrighetti’s record and ERA are poor, his FIP metrics suggest he hasn’t been as bad as the ERA and record would suggest. Arrighetti is striking hitters out at an impressive rate, and he’s done a good job not allowing home runs against lineups with strong power metrics. Guardians starter Logan Allen has a better record and ERA than Arrighetti, but his FIP metrics are worse. Allen is also a lefty, and the Astros rank top 5 in the MLB in wRC+ versus left handed pitching. The Guardians currently have the best bullpen in the MLB, and the Astros bullpen has been poor (24th). Some bettors may prefer a first 5 innings bet, but we will stick to the full game moneyline due to the offensive advantage that Houston should hold in this matchup. Our wager is on the Astros moneyline.
(5/2 at 8:46am via BetMGM)

(WIN)

Free Pick Results 5/1/24:

MLB:

0.25 UNIT

Yankees @ Orioles 6:35pm

Yankees Moneyline (+135)

We like this price on the Yankees as road divisional dogs. This has been a highly profitable spot for us over the years. The Orioles have their ace on the mound (Corbin Burnes). Baltimore is 5-1 in Burnes 6 starts, and Corbin Burnes is 3-0 in regards to his personal record. There’s no doubt the former Cy Young winner is a top tier pitcher, but Corbin Burnes has been allowing more home runs than usual this season. He has allowed a home run in 5 of his 6 starts. Burnes home runs allowed per 9 innings is the highest it’s been since 2019, and his strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2018. In full transparency, Yankees starter Luis Gil is a complete wild card in this matchup. Gil has a very impressive strikeout rate, but his control is poor. He has 19 walks in 24.2 innings. Gil’s FIP metrics are right in line with Corbin Burnes despite his walks. The Yankees bullpen has much better metrics, and they are more rested than the Orioles bullpen. The Yanks are also one of the best defensive teams in the MLB, ranking top 5 in defensive runs saved. We will take a flier on the Yankees to win today as road underdogs.
(5/1 at 9:28am via BetMGM)

(WIN)

Free Pick Results 4/30/24:

MLB:

0.75 UNIT

Twins @ White Sox 7:40pm

Twins Moneyline (-167)

This bet has a little more juice than we typically like to lay, but for good reason based on the metrics of these teams. White Sox starter Michael Soroka has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his 6 starts. Soroka is also walking a lot of hitters, and his strikeout rate is way down. Behind Soroka is a White Sox bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the league. The Twins have a top 3 bullpen in the MLB. Minnesota has also been hitting right handed pitching much better than the White Sox. Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson has good metrics through his first two starts, which included a good performance against this White Sox lineup. While Woods Richardson does look to be the better starting pitching option, he is a young pitcher with limited road experience. On paper (and in our MLB betting charts), the Twins hold the advantage just about everywhere in this matchup tonight. Our wager is on the Twins moneyline.
(4/30 at 11:04am via BetRivers)

(WIN)