0.5 UNIT

76ers @ Celtics

76ers +12 (-113)

The Celtics have the opportunity to eliminate the 76ers tonight on their home floor in Boston. While we fully anticipate the Celtics winning and advancing tonight, the 12-point spread caught our attention for a few reasons. First, this series has been played at a very slow tempo, which leads to fewer overall possessions. Boston shot the lights out from three-point range in Games 3 and 4, hitting 20+ threes at a 40%+ clip, well above their season averages. Philly shot nearly 50% from three-point range in Game 2. The three-point shooting discrepancy game by game has largely been the difference in this series, and in the betting spread of each game. If both teams shoot closer to their season averages, it should result in a much closer outcome than we’ve seen through the first 4 games. The 76ers are the healthiest they’ve been with Joel Embiid having a couple of extra days to heal and improve his conditioning. Our wager is a half unit on the 76ers to keep this game within 12 points. 

(4/28 at 11:44am via ProphetX)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Giants @ Phillies

Phillies Moneyline (-155)

It’s been a disastrous few weeks for the Philadelphia Phillies, losing 11 of their last 12 games. However, it’s important to note that all of those losses came against the Braves and Cubs, who look to be two of the better teams in the NL. Our MLB betting charts indicate a notable edge for the Philies in this starting pitching matchup. Luzardo has a worse ERA than Mahle, but Luzardo’s advanced metrics are much better. Mahle has a FIP approaching the 6 mark, while Luzardo’s FIP is in the low 3s. Once the starters exit, the Giants hold the better bullpen metrics, but the Phillies metrics are slightly skewed as they haven’t been in positions to use their top relievers during their losing skid. Philadelphia has a fresh and rested bullpen in tonight’s matchup. From a scheduling standpoint, the Giants had to travel cross-country for this series, which is typically a difficult scheduling spot. Our wager is a half-unit on the Phillies' moneyline. 

(4/28 at 8:15am via ProphetX)

(WIN)

0.5 UNIT

Nationals @ Mets

Mets Moneyline (-163)

The New York Mets were just swept by the Rockies at home and aren’t too far removed from a 12-game losing streak. As bad as the Mets' offense has been, this is a highly favorable matchup against a starting pitcher with extremely poor metrics. Zach Littell has a FIP above 8 paired with an ERA in the 7s. Behind Littell, the Nationals hold the 28th-ranked bullpen. If the Mets aren’t able to score runs and take advantage of a significant pitching edge, it would be quite surprising despite their recent poor play. We are comfortable laying the juice on the New York Mets moneyline.

(4/28 at 8:22am via Polymarket)

(WIN)

0.25 UNIT

Tigers @ Braves

Tigers F5 Innings Moneyline (+110)

Our MLB betting charts indicate an advantage for the Tigers in this starting pitching matchup. Both starters have good ERAs, but Detroit’s Mize holds a FIP in the 2s compared to the 4s for Perez. The Braves have a slight offensive edge, but that advantage should not be overly significant while the starters are in the game. Atlanta has the best bullpen metrics in the league right now and will hold a pitching edge in the later innings of this game. For this reason, we are going to limit our wager on the Tigers to the first 5 innings only at appealing (+110) odds. 

(4/28 at 8:20am via BetRivers)

(LOSS)

0.25 UNIT

Yankees @ Rangers

Rangers Moneyline (+108)

The Yankees carry good momentum into this game, having won 9 of their last 10. They took the opener of this series last night, 4-2. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Yankees, who will be playing their 3rd consecutive road series and 8th consecutive road game. The Rangers are at the opposite end of the scheduling spectrum, having been at home for the last three series with no travel. This game has two very good starters in Cam Schlittler and Jacob deGrom. The Rangers hold the better bullpen metrics once the starters exit. Texas also holds a defensive edge with a better DRS ranking. This game should primarily feature right-handed pitching, and both offenses hit righties well. In what looks to be very close to a 50-50 matchup, we like the (+108) odds on the Rangers. 

(4/28 at 8:29am via Novig)

(LOSS)