Free Pick Of The Day:

MLB:

0.25 UNIT

Phillies @ Marlins

Marlins F5 Innings Moneyline (-122)

This matchup features two right-handed starters in Aaron Nola and Sandy Alcantara. Among the two, Alcantara has a FIP and ERA in the 4s while Nola’s FIP and ERA sit in the 5s. Aaron Nola has been the most vulnerable starter in the Phillies rotation for the last two years, and there hasn’t been much encouragement for Nola to turn the corner and get back to his All-Star-caliber form. Miami ranks 14th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching while the Phillies rank 27th in wRC+ versus RHP. The Marlins also have the better bullpen metrics, but it is worth noting that several of their core relievers have pitched back-to-back days. We prefer to back the Marlins through the first 5 innings of the game and key in on the Nola vs. Alcantara matchup. The Marlins' first 5 innings moneyline at (-122) odds is our wager. 

(7/28 at 6:54am via FanDuel)

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Free Pick 7/27/26:

MLB:

0.25 UNIT

Blue Jays @ Nationals

Nationals F5 Innings Moneyline (-140)

The Blue Jays are starting 42-year-old Max Scherzer today. His last appearance came on June 10th, and Scherzer was rocked by the Phillies, lasting just 3.1 innings while allowing 5 earned runs (2 home runs). Scherzer has made 5 total starts this season, and not only was he hit hard in nearly all of them, but the Blue Jays are 0-5 in those games. Through 22 innings, his FIP is approaching 9, and his ERA is over 10. Mad Max Scherzer is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he hasn’t shown anything that suggests he should still be pitching on a major league roster at this stage of his career. Nationals starter Andrew Alvarez has a FIP in the low 3s through a 50+ inning sample size. Washington has significantly better offensive metrics than Toronto. The lone edge for the Blue Jays is their bullpen, which ranks 8th compared to 28th for the Nationals bullpen. We are going to key in on the Alvarez vs. Scherzer matchup with a first 5 innings wager on the Nationals rather than backing them through the full game.

(7/27 at 7:15am via DraftKings)

(LOSS)

Free Pick Results 7/26/26:

MLB:

0.25 UNIT

Padres @ Marlins

Padres Moneyline (+113)

This matchup features two right-handed starters with very similar advanced metrics. Janson Junk holds the slightly better ERA, but Walker Buehler holds the slight FIP edge. Both offenses grade out right around the league average in wRC+ versus RHP, with Miami holding the slight edge over the full-season sample. However, the Padres offense has been red hot against righties, ranking 5th in wRC+ this month compared to 10th for Miami. Once the starters exit, the Padres have the bullpen edge and also have their top 2 relievers working on extended rest. San Diego holds the better DRS (defensive runs saved) ranking. At (+113) odds, we will take a flyer on the Padres moneyline.

(7/26 at 6:51am via Novig)

(WIN)