Strictly looking at the numbers, Texas Arlington is amongst the worst teams in the country. They are 0-5 against division 1 opponents, and have covered in just one of their games this season. UC Santa Barbara is very good team, and they have covered big spreads in back to back games. Talent wise, this is a mismatch.

There are two signals that caught our attention in this game. First, the Pelicans have performed poorly against the spread on the road this season. They are 3-9 (25% cover rate) in this spot as a road underdog. We also like to monitor "sweet spots" for teams. Sweet spots are narrow spread ranges where individual teams tend to perform well. The Clippers are 3-1 against the spread this season when they have been favored by between 6-8 points. Let's see if we have identified a nice sweet spot on the Clippers.

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