Before this line opened, we hoped to get Kentucky somewhere between -1 and -1.5. John Calipari’s group is playing very good basketball right now. Outside of two losses to Vanderbilt, this team has been on a tear since mid February. In terms of this matchup, Kentucky should have a clear rebounding advantage. Kentucky ranks 2nd in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, and right around 50th in defensive rebounding. Kansas State’s edge in this matchup will come on the defensive side of the ball. K-State ranks 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency, Kentucky ranks 60th in this metric. It’s also worth noting, Kansas State plays very fast (top 40 in tempo), whereas Kentucky plays much slower (257th in tempo). Kentucky has struggled against fast tempo teams such as Alabama (lost 52-78) and Arkansas (lost 73-88). Our last note in this matchup is that Kentucky is a poor free throw shooting team. They rank outside the top 225 nationally in free throw percentage, whereas Kansas State is a very good free throw shooting team. The Kentucky defense often lands in foul trouble, so free throws could be a major factor in this game. As much as we like this Kentucky team, our numbers suggest the value lies with taking the 3 points behind the underdogs. Our model signals about a 1.5 point edge, the KenPom model has Kansas State winning this game outright.

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