If the moneyline price on Gonzaga was reasonable, we may have opted to go that route. At roughly (-195), against a talented defense like TCU, that price is not reasonable. While any edge here is certainly razor thin, we see a big gap between these two offenses. Gonzaga ranks 1st in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 1st in effective field goal percentage. TCU ranks just outside of the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they rank 213th in effective field goal percentage. TCU is one of the worst three point shooting teams in the nation (336th in three point percentage). Gonzaga can shoot the three ball (9th in the nation in three point percentage), and score inside efficiently (1st in two point field goal percentage). TCU has an edge defensively by the metrics, but our concern is that if they fall behind early, they could struggle to score their way back into the game. We will lay the 4 points with the #1 offense in the country.

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