UCLA vs. Gonzaga 9:45pm
(NCAA Tournament Sweet 16)
UCLA Moneyline (-120)
Here we have an exciting matchup between two programs that are very familiar with one another. These teams met in the Final Four back in 2021, playing one of the most exciting games in recent tournament history. Gonzaga ultimately won that matchup on a buzzer beater. The current leaders of both of these teams played in that 2021 Final Four matchup. Drew Timme for Gonzaga, and Jamie Jaquez for UCLA. In terms of this 2023 Sweet 16 matchup, Gonzaga brings in the nation's top offense. UCLA brings in the nation's 2nd ranked defense. Both coaches (Mark Few and Mick Cronin) have a ton of experience in the NCAA tournament. For us, this bet comes down to who we feel has the more complete team overall, which is UCLA. Gonzaga’s defense ranks outside of the top 200 nationally in many key defensive metrics. These include defending the three point line, defending the pain, fouling opponents, and effective field goal percentage. It’s worth noting that over the last 20 years, there has not been a single team which ranked outside of the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency that went on to win the NCAA tournament. That’s not to say that Gonzaga can’t go a bit further, but history strongly suggests that their exit is around the corner. UCLA on the other hand, fits the mold of the last 20 NCAA champions. Each of the last 20 NCAA tournament winners have ranked within the top 40 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and within the top 22 in adjusted defensive efficiency. UCLA is 21st on offense, and 2nd on defense. The injury to Jaylen Clark might be felt a bit more than it was in the first two rounds of the tournament. Regardless, UCLA’s defense has done a great job without him, and we expect that to continue. Our wager is 1 unit on UCLA to advance.
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