The juice here is tough to stomach, but we see a significant advantage for the Phillies in this matchup today. Mets starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has not been pitching well recently. In the month of June Carrasco has a 7.82 ERA and 1.974 WHIP. He hasn’t pitched beyond 5 innings in any of his starts this month, and failed to make it beyond 3 innings in his last start (at home against the Cardinals). Carrasco’s home run rate is the highest it’s been since his rookie season in 2009. He has allowed at least 1 home run in 6 consecutive starts. It is worth noting that Carrasco beat the Phillies this season back in May. However, that was prior to him entering this current slump. Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has been pitching very well this month, and holds a 2.93 ERA and 0.977 WHIP at home this season (43 innings). The Phillies offense has cooled off recently, but over the larger sample size this team has been great against right handed pitching. Philly ranks 2nd in the MLB in batting average against righties this season (.264), and 6th in on base percentage (.334). This is a great opportunity for the Phillies bats to get back on track. In terms of the bullpens, the Phillies hold the slightly better metrics. We are going to eat the juice, and roll with a one unit bet on the Phillies moneyline.

This looks to be very close to a 50-50 matchup tonight. Both of these staring pitchers (Tony Gonsolin & Hunter Brown) struggled in their most recent start. Astros starter Hunter Brown is 4-1 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.104 WHIP on the road this season. Brown holds a 3.52 FIP on the season, which is above average. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has an impressive 2.92 ERA. However, his expected ERA is north of 4, and his FIP sits at 4.11. These metrics suggest Gonsolin could have some regression coming soon. The Astros hold the better bullpen, and their offense has been heating up over the last week. The Dodgers offense is batting just .210 as a team over their last 4 games. When you expand that metric to the Dodgers last 11 games, their offense is still only hitting .217. We will take the plus money with the Astros. Our wager is a half unit.

All picks and content are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team for full access to everything we have to offer. After you sign up (or login), head to the "Picks" page to see all of our selections and unit amounts for each wager.