Tonight we have a huge Thursday night football game in the NFL. The result of this game will greatly impact the outcome of both the AFC west, and the #1 or #2 seed in the AFC. Both of these teams are coming off of blowout wins on Sunday. For us, this pick comes down to the defensive side of the ball. Our numbers show a pretty large edge defensively with the Chiefs over the last month. Chris Jones will be out tonight, who is certainly a key player on the Kansas City defense. However, the Chargers will be missing their star left tackle Rashan Slater who protects Justin Herbert's blind side. Slater might be a rookie, but the advanced metrics suggest he is top 3 in the league at his position. Derwin James might also miss this game for the Chargers. If he does play, it sounds like the hamstring issue will linger into the game. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have proven they can win these big divisional games late in the season. Justin Herbert and rookie head coach Brandon Staley haven't been tested in these big spots. We will side with experience, and lay the 3 points with the Chiefs. If you like the Chiefs, get your bet in sooner rather than later. This line has already moved to 3.5 at some books.

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