We are going to opt for the first 5 innings moneyline rather than the full game. The Yankees bullpen is much better than the Rangers, so we want to isolate those later innings out of this bet. Both of these pitchers struggled in their last start. However, Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino has struggled in far more than just his last start. In the month of June, Severino has a 9.16 ERA, 7.99 FIP, and 2.04 WHIP. These are not numbers that we want to put our money behind right now. Jon Gray got hit hard by a very good Blue Jays lineup in his last start. Prior to that, Gray had pitched 6 consecutive quality starts. It's also worth noting that the Yankees offense has been TERRIBLE without Aaron Judge. Yankees fans should be grateful that this team signed Judge, because without him this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Over the last 15 days the Yankees are batting just .201 as a team, which ranks dead last in the MLB. Over this same 15 day stretch against right handed pitching, the Yankees team batting average is below .200 (Jon Gray is a righty). Our wager is on the Rangers to be winning this game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied, this bet will void. Make sure you bet the 2-way first 5 inning market, rather than the 3-way which includes a tie.

The Reds 12 game win streak has been fun to watch. As much as we would love to see this exciting streak continue, Graham Ashcraft is on the mound today for the Reds. In Ashcraft’s last 7 starts, he has a 12.72 ERA, 6.93 FIP, and an extremely alarming 2.14 WHIP. When a pitchers WHIP approaches or crosses the 2.00 mark, it’s usually time to start questioning whether they belong in the big leagues. Ironically, Ashcraft has not pitched during the Reds 12 game win streak. The streak started right after he got injured, and it’s been over two weeks since his last start. Braves starter Jared Shuster is not one of the better options in their rotation. However, his numbers are far better than Ashcraft. Both of these teams' offenses are hot, but we trust the production of the Braves lineup more. Atlanta is the only team in the MLB with better hitting metrics than Cincinnati over the last 7 days. However, over the larger sample size of the season, the Braves offense has been significantly more productive and consistent. Atlanta holds the better bullpen and should have an edge in the later innings. Our wager is on the Braves to end the Reds 12 game win streak today.

For whatever reason, our model often displays strong value on the opposing side when Jose Berrios pitches. Berrios is what we like to call a “wild card” pitcher. He’s capable of throwing a gem, or pitching horrible on any given start. In his most recent start against the Marlins, Berrios was hit hard and failed to make it beyond 4 innings. It is worth noting that Berrios had pitched well in 5 consecutive starts prior, and his metrics have been better at home this season. Athletics starting pitcher Hogan Harris has quietly been very good this month. Hogan is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA, and an impressive 0.870 WHIP in 23 innings pitched in June. The 26 year old lefty has not allowed more than 5 hits in any of the 6 games he has appeared in this season. The Blue Jays haven't hit left handed pitching nearly as well as right handed pitching this season. Oakland’s bullpen remains a big liability (5.56 ERA), but we like their chances to compete through the first 5 innings of this game. We opted for the +0.5 run line, which means the Athletics must be tied or winning at the conclusion of the 5th inning. Our stake is a half unit.

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