There is a lot to break down in this Power Play. We recommend reading this entire write up prior to deciding whether or not to tail the play. It’s important you know exactly why we are taking this game bigger than usual, and to understand our angle fully. Remember to ALWAYS bet responsibly. There is no such thing as a sure thing, or a “lock” in sports.

Across the major US Sportsbooks, the opening line (in early December) ranged anywhere from Utah -3, all the way to Utah +1.5. Within the opening hours, Utah moved to a consensus favorite between -1.5 and -2.5. Any 3’s that were available at opening quickly vanished. As the month of December went along, very few sportsbooks let this line touch 3. The ones that did quickly removed them within moments. The market currently still sits between -2 and -2.5 across the major US sportsbooks. The sharper sportsbooks such as Pinnacle have this line at 2, which is typically a good tell of which direction the market is moving. Our biggest takeaway from the market to this point (12/30), is that the books have not let this line cross the key number of 3. When you see this happening, it’s typically a strong signal of the respected money on the other side of the 3 (the Penn State side in this case). The moneyline price on Penn State has consistently come down toward the Nittany Lions from where it opened. These are all positive signals we like to see on the underdog side.

These two teams both have one of the elite cornerbacks in the nation, and both of those corners have opted out (Joey Porter Jr. & Clark Phillips). The Utah & Penn State defenses are both fantastic in pass coverage, but it will be a matter of who has better depth at the position with these NFL bound stars out. One other opt out worth noting, Utah’s star TE Dalton Kincaid is entering the NFL Draft and will not play. Dalton Kincaid led the Utes in catches, receiving yards, and touchdows. He made countless clutch plays in key moments this season. This is a huge loss for Utah’s offense. Digging more into the matchup, these defenses grade out pretty close against the run, however Penn State has a much better pass rush. Penn State’s pass rush ranks top 8 in the nation, whereas Utah ranks outside of the top 50. This is important to know because the teams who have given Penn State’s offense problems, have all had an elite pass rush. On the offensive side of the ball, Utah has a fantastic rushing attack and a scrappy QB in Cameron Rising. Penn State also has a strong rushing attack led by Nicholas Singleton & Kaytron Allen. Penn State has a 6th year senior QB in Sean Clifford, who has a ton of experience in this offense and in big games. Penn State’s only 2 losses this season have come against 2 of the teams currently in the college football playoff (Michigan & Ohio State). Utah’s 3 losses have come against Oregon, UCLA, and Florida. We will save the Pac-12 vs. Big Ten argument for another day, but the data suggests Penn State played a tougher schedule by a decent margin. Our model has Penn State winning this game outright. In addition, nearly every other respected projection model we examined has Penn State within +2.5 points, if not winning outright. 

For everyone who thought we were leveraging the timing of releasing this Power Play as a marketing plot, we can assure you that we were actually just holding out hoping one of the +2.5’s in the market would flicker to a +3. Rather than waiting any longer, we decided to pull the trigger in case the market moves toward Penn State. We did some math and research to see whether or not it made sense to buy the half point on the underdog in this spot (+2.5). Here is what we found. In a 20 year sample size with over 13,000 games, the frequency of the margin of victory being exactly 3 in college football is roughly 9%. To put that into perspective, in the NFL the frequency of 3 is closer to 14-15%. With that being said, it’s a bit less important in college football, but 3 is still the most important key number in college football.

The bigger question here is what price should you be willing to pay for that half point, and is it worth it? Our math suggests that over a large sample size (which is how you should always think), if you can buy a +2.5 line to +3 for 10 cents or less (-120 or better), then it would be a profitable move to make and would have a positive expected return long term. However, if you pay 20 cents of juice (-130) or even 30 cents (-140) for that half point, you get yourself into a negative EV proposition. That's our mathematical angle behind it. The best price we could find on the half point was about 17 cents which is right on the fringe. Given this being a large play, we are going to do it this time. That said, buying a half point at this price is not something we want to make a frequent habit of. We could also make a strong argument that the +2.5 at (-110) is a better choice, so consider your options and go with what you feel is right. Our data suggests that this game should be a true pick 'em on a neutral site, so to get a 3 point edge for (-127), we are going to trust our data and press a bit. 5 units is our bet.

If you tail us, do it responsibly. Remember that SteadyPicks is here to be a resource and provide our bets and analysis for free. It is ultimately your decision whether or not you’d like to tail them. While we have a strong track record of success with Power Plays, our track record does not increase the chances of this bet hitting. We’ve won many of these, and we lost several as well. That being said, let’s end the year with a bang, but let’s do it responsibly knowing that anything can happen in sports. Cheers everyone.

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