The 49ers are a rightful favorite at home against any team in the NFL. However, getting +6 points with the Ravens is an opportunity that we are going to jump on. According to our metrics, this is the #1 offense (49ers) going up against the #1 defense (Ravens). In addition to that, both teams have top 10 units on the other side of the ball. On paper these look to be the two Super Bowl favorites, and possibly an early preview of February 11th’s big game. These teams rank #1 and #2 in DVOA. There are two big questions. How many points apart are the two top dogs? How many points is San Francisco being at home worth? Both of those questions don’t necessarily have a black and white answer. Our model suggests that 6 points is slightly too many. We are going to trust our numbers, and roll with the Ravens +6. Our stake is 1 unit.