You won’t hear this often, but this is the 4th matchup between these two fighters. All 4 fights will have taken place within a timeframe of about two years, so it's safe to say that these two are very familiar with one another. The matchup currently sits at 1 win each, and 1 draw. All 3 fights were exciting, so we expect another fun one here. Both fighters made changes in their camps. Brandon Moreno (formerly coached by James Krause), now trains with Fortis MMA’s Sayif Saud. Daveiveson Figueiredo left Henry Cejudo’s Fight Ready gym to train in Brazil. Brandon Moreno is the younger fighter by about 6 years, and he will also have a slight height and reach advantage. For us, our bet is based more around the market rather than the matchup itself. This line opened with Brandon Moreno as either a slight underdog or a 50-50 pick 'em depending on your book. Despite Figueiredo winning the last matchup, and now getting this fight in his home country (Brazil), the majority of market moving wagers seem to be coming in on Moreno. The market has reacted, and Moreno has flipped to a consensus betting favorite. More often than not, the market tends to be right in these spots. Our bet is 1 unit on Brandon Moreno to win.

As powerful as Jamahal Hill appears to be, his grappling and takedown defense look to be a liability. In Hill’s loss to Paul Craig, he was almost submitted 3 times prior to the TKO. Thiago Santos took Hill down 6 times in his last fight. Glover Teixeira is a dangerous BJJ black belt, and while he is 43 years old, he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Glover has 10 submissions on his resume. The two most likely outcomes here are a Jamahal Hill knockout, or a Glover Teixeira submission. You have to lay juice on Jamahal Hill to get that knockout, whereas you can get a Glover submission at (+260). We don’t feel those two outcomes are as far apart as these odds imply. Our bet is a half unit on Glover to get a submission in front of his home crowd tonight. This sets up for a storybook ending if Glover can get the belt back tonight, and to retire as the champion in Brazil.