As impressive as the Texans and their phenom rookie QB CJ Stroud have been, we are going to side with the veteran Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in this matchup. Arizona pulled off a nice win against the Falcons in Murray’s first game back from the torn ACL last week. The Cardinals defense has struggled this season. Their head coach Jonathan Gannon is a defensive minded coach, who should be able to get this unit playing better as the season progresses. Gannon’s specialty is scheming creative ways to generate pressure on opposing QBs. As good as Texans QB CJ Stroud has been, his one poor metric is passing under pressure. Stroud holds a 66.8 passer rating under pressure versus a 114.4 passer rating with a clean pocket. Our wager is on the Cardinals to keep this game within 6 points.

If you’ve been with us at SteadyPicks over the last few seasons, you already know the drill with this one. This is one of our favorite betting spots in the NFL. The good old double digit home dog. These plays have cashed over 60% for us over the last 4 seasons. The Panthers have been bad this season, but they will get a couple of key players back today. Dak Prescott has played much better at home in the dome this season. He will be outdoors in Carolina against an underrated Panthers pass rush. If you look at the ticket/cash splits on this game, over 70% of the tickets are behind the Cowboys spread. However, over 70% of the cash is on the Panthers spread. The Panthers look to be catching a lot of sharp action. Dallas has a quick turnaround this week. They are playing on Thanksgiving Thursday. This looks to have all the makings of a look ahead spot. Panthers +10.5 is our wager.

This teaser follows the Wong rules, moving through 3 key numbers (3,6,7) on both legs. For the first leg we are teasing the Steelers from +2.5 to +8.5. There is a 32.5 point total in the Steelers vs. Browns game. Safe to say points will be at a premium. In the second leg, we are teasing the Bills from -7.5 to -1.5. Buffalo did lose to this Jets team back in week 1. This game today is in Buffalo, and we see a big edge offensively for this Bills team.

We backed the Vikings last week in their impressive win over the Saints. Although the Vikings won and covered in that game, their second half performance was a bit alarming. The Vikings struggled to move the ball in the second half. They had countless chances to put the game away in the 4th quarter, but struggled to get a first down. The Vikings defense also seemed to collapse a bit, allowing the Saints to march right back into the game after trailing by 24 points. This Broncos defense isn’t as good as the Saints, but they’ve been improving each week. Denver has one of the biggest home field advantages, as it’s one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. What Josh Dobbs has done in his first few weeks has been remarkable. Dobbs will be short handed his top weapon again tonight with Justin Jefferson expected out. The Broncos have won 3 straight games, and Russell Wilson is back to playing the QB position at a high level. Rather than laying the -3 points, we are going to opt for a reasonable (-146) price on the moneyline. If this line falls back to -2.5 prior to kickoff, we recommend laying the -2.5 at (-115) or better instead of this moneyline.

This looks to be a potential look ahead spot for the Lions. Detroit has a quick turnaround this week. They are playing in the early window of the Thanksgiving slate on Thursday. Chicago will get QB Justin Fields back today. Fields was on a nice 3 game stretch prior to his injury. He should give the Bears offense a much needed boost. The Bears defense has been improving week by week. Chicago had 3 extra days to prepare for this game, having played last Thursday night. Whether it’s through a competitive game throughout, or a backdoor cover late, we are going to take a flier on the Bears to cover the 8 points in this divisional matchup.