Both of these teams are coming off of their bye week. The Jaguars won 5 straight games heading into their bye week. San Francisco lost 3 straight games going into their bye. While these teams look to be trending in opposite directions, both rank within the top 5 teams in the NFL in our power rankings. 49ers QB Brock Purdy rarely turned the ball over last season. He carried that into this season through the first 5 weeks. However, weeks 6-8 were a different story. After a nightmare 3 game stretch for Purdy, he looks like one of the most turnover prone QBs in the league. Over 5% of Purdy’s dropbacks have been graded as turnover worthy plays. The good news for Purdy and the banged up 49ers offense is that the bye week came at a perfect time. They will get a couple key players back including Deebo Samuel (and possibly Trent Williams). For Purdy, an extra week to work with Kyle Shanahan might be just what the doctor ordered. This 49ers team is too talented on both sides of the ball for us to pass up this reasonable (-168) moneyline price. The -3 spread is juiced up to (-125) at some sportsbooks, so we see more value going the moneyline route. The Jaguars look to be real contenders, and have taken huge strides on defense. However, this 49ers team looks to be just a small step ahead. Our wager is 1 unit on the 49ers to avoid their 4th consecutive loss.

We are going to grab the +3 points with the home dogs in this matchup. Both of these teams are playing good football heading into this matchup. The Vikings have won 4 straight, with 3 road games during that stretch. The Saints are winners of two straight games, but had lost 4 of 5 games prior to those two wins. New Orleans has played the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point. They don’t have a single win against a team with a record above .500. The Saints only played one team the entire season that has a winning record (Jaguars). Meanwhile, the VIkings have played the Eagles, Chargers, Chiefs, and 49ers. Not a single one of those teams beat Minnesota by more than a score. Vikings QB Josh Dobbs is new to the team and system, but this kid is incredibly intelligent. He’s an aerospace engineer that NASA recruited to work for them. Dobbs brings a different dynamic than Kirk Cousins, but he showed last week he can take this offense down the field. With a full week of practice under his belt, we expect Dobbs to come out and play well today. In what should be a competitive game, we will opt for a Vikings +3 wager. 

As bad as the Jets offense has looked in recent weeks (and it’s been very ugly), their defense has been outstanding. We have this Jets defense ranked as the #1 unit in the NFL. They are elite in pass coverage, very good against the run, and have a strong pass rush. Last week was a disaster for the Jets on Monday Night Football. They gave up a rare special teams touchdown on a punt return. The Jets offense had 3 fumbles, which quickly put them in an unfavorable game script. Their defense held Justin Herbert to 136 passing yards and no touchdowns. Austin Eckler was held under 50 rushing yards. The Jets defense has faced several of the top QBs in the NFL including Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. All of them struggled. It’s hard to imagine that Raiders rookie QB Aidan O’Connell is going to be able to have much success against this defense. The question is whether or not the Jets offense will be able to find success. The Raiders defense ranks right around the league average against the run, and they rank bottom 10 in the NFL in tackling. This looks to be a good matchup for Jets RB Breece Hall, who can make defenses who don’t tackle well pay for it. We are going to side with who we feel has the better overall team in this pick em matchup. Jets on the moneyline is our wager.

Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud has been phenomenal this season. He broke several rookie passing records last week with an incredible 470 yard 5 TD performance. That game was played at home in Houston, where Stroud has looked most comfortable. Prior to that record breaking win, the Texans lost on the road to a bad Carolina Panthers. The Texans also lost to Atlanta on the road a couple of weeks prior to the Panthers loss. This looks to be another tough road spot for CJ Stroud and the Texans. Stroud currently has a 63.7 passer rating under pressure, and this Bengals defensive line generates a lot of pressure. The Texans will be without their top WR Nico Collins and their starting RB. The Bengals will also be without one of their top weapons in Tee Higgins. Joe Burrow is far more suited to deal with missing key players than the rookie CJ Stroud is. With this game being played in Cincinnati, we are comfortable laying the -5.5 points on the scorching hot Bengals. Our wager is a half unit.