This bet is a fade on Reds starting pitcher Connor Overton. Through two starts (8 innings), Overton has given up 9 earned runs on 14 hits. His walk rate is also alarmingly high. Despite Overton's poor metrics, the Reds have managed to win both of the games he started. We don’t anticipate another Reds win behind Connor Overton tonight. As bad as this Phillies team has been early in the season, our model still firmly suggest they have the edge offensively, in the bullpen, and in this starting pitching matchup. Tijuan Walker has struggled with walks through his first two starts. Outside of the walks, there is reason for optimism with Walker. His strikeout rate is up, and he has not allowed a lot of hard hit balls. It looks to be purely a command issue for Walker. The Phillies on the moneyline is our bet.

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