Orioles @ Red Sox 2:10pm
Orioles Moneyline (+110)
The Orioles took home what we call “the people’s trophy” last season. Baltimore was the most profitable team to bet on in the entire MLB, and by a wide margin. The Orioles managed to make bettors a fortune despite finishing the season only 4 games over .500 (83-79). The most profitable team in 2021 (Mariners), remained highly profitable in 2022 (5th overall). However, there have been other circumstances of extreme market corrections on profitable teams. Most recently the 2021 Giants and Tigers were highly profitable, but produced negative returns for bettors in 2022. It will be interesting to monitor how the market will adjust on the Orioles this season. Baltimore was downright awful from a betting perspective in 2021, so it's dangerous to assume the value from last year will roll over to this season. In terms of this specific opening day matchup, this game looks to be a toss up with two veteran pitchers in Corey Kluber and Kyle Gibson. Our bet comes down to these bullpens. The Orioles bullpen was a large part of their success last season, and it should continue to be a strength this season. The Red Sox bullpen posted a 4.59 ERA last season, 5th worst in the MLB. This is a road divisional dog spot, with a relatively high total. You’ll see us betting these spots frequently throughout the season. Our stake is a half unit.
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