Since the start of March, the Toronto Raptors have the 6th best defensive rating in the NBA. The Raptors also rank top 8 in rebounding percentage, and overall net rating during this span. Nick Nurse has this team playing well down the stretch, but it's translated to just a 6-6 record in March. The Heat have managed a similar record in March (7-6), but their metrics tell a far different story. The Heat have the 28th ranked defensive rating this month, which is good for 3rd worst in the entire league. Miami’s net rating is far below the league average. We are going to side with the team that the data suggests is playing much better basketball right now. Our wager is on the Raptors -3.5.

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