This is an interesting matchup between two elite offenses, and two defenses that have struggled. Providence ranks 16th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The downside with this team is their inability to generate turnovers on defense, and how frequently they send their opponents to the foul line. Kentucky ranks inside the top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Kentucky does not generate a lot of turnovers on defense, and often lands in foul trouble. In other words, these teams are very similar to one another. Our numbers suggest 4.5 points is a generous number on the underdogs. Both of these teams have struggled winning games down the stretch, so we will see if one of them can spark a run with a first round win. Our wager is a half unit on Providence with the points. 

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