UFC Fight Night Line Movement Report | Allen vs. Costa
Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon
Opening Line
* Nicolle Caliari (-180)
* Shauna Bannon (+150)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Nicolle Caliari (-255)
* Shauna Bannon (+230)
Key Read: This is one of the clearest favorite-side moves on the card. Caliari opened at -180 and has been bet all the way up into the -250 range, while Bannon has drifted from +150 to as high as +230. That kind of movement suggests the market is strongly backing Caliari and has created a much wider gap between the two fighters than the opener implied.
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Luis Gurule vs. Daniel Barez
Opening Line
* Luis Gurule (-105)
* Daniel Barez (-115)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Luis Gurule (-140)
* Daniel Barez (+125)
Key Read: This fight has seen a true market flip. Barez opened as the slight favorite at -115, but the money has come in on Gurule, pushing him to around -140 while Barez is now sitting as the underdog. When a near pick’em turns into one side becoming a clear favorite, it usually signals the sharper side of the market gravitating to the fighter on the better side of the movement.
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Ivan Erslan vs. George “Tuco” Tokkos
Opening Line
* Ivan Erslan (-200)
* Tuco Tokkos (+170)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Ivan Erslan (-175)
* Tuco Tokkos (+150)
Key Read: This is a move toward the underdog. Erslan opened as a much larger favorite at -200, but that number has been bet down to around -175. Tokkos has shortened from +170 to +150, suggesting the market is giving him a better chance than the opener did. Erslan is still favored, but the price has become more competitive. We will monitor this market closely around weigh-ins.
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Daniel Gustavo Santos vs. Doo Ho Choi
Opening Line
* Daniel Santos (-115)
* Doo Ho Choi (+105)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Daniel Santos (-165)
* Doo Ho Choi (+135)
Key Read: Santos has taken clear favorite money, moving from -115 to around -160/-170. Choi has drifted from +105 to as high as +140. The market appears to be fading Choi at his opening price. This is one of the stronger favorite-side adjustments on the board.
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Melquizael Costa vs. Arnold Allen
Opening Line
* Melquizael Costa (+140)
* Arnold Allen (-165)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Melquizael Costa (+115)
* Arnold Allen (-135)
Key Read: This is one of the more interesting moves in the main event. The market has pushed toward Costa, who carries better momentum, riding a 6-fight win streak, while Allen is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Allen opened as a solid -165 favorite but has been bet down closer to -135, while Costa has shortened from +140 to around +115. Allen remains favored, but the market is clearly showing more respect for Costa than the opener did. It’s worth noting that Allen has never been knocked out or even knocked down in his MMA career. Costa’s last two wins have come by vicious knockout.
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Opening Line
* Nicolle Caliari (-180)
* Shauna Bannon (+150)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Nicolle Caliari (-255)
* Shauna Bannon (+230)
Key Read: This is one of the clearest favorite-side moves on the card. Caliari opened at -180 and has been bet all the way up into the -250 range, while Bannon has drifted from +150 to as high as +230. That kind of movement suggests the market is strongly backing Caliari and has created a much wider gap between the two fighters than the opener implied.
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Luis Gurule vs. Daniel Barez
Opening Line
* Luis Gurule (-105)
* Daniel Barez (-115)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Luis Gurule (-140)
* Daniel Barez (+125)
Key Read: This fight has seen a true market flip. Barez opened as the slight favorite at -115, but the money has come in on Gurule, pushing him to around -140 while Barez is now sitting as the underdog. When a near pick’em turns into one side becoming a clear favorite, it usually signals the sharper side of the market gravitating to the fighter on the better side of the movement.
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Ivan Erslan vs. George “Tuco” Tokkos
Opening Line
* Ivan Erslan (-200)
* Tuco Tokkos (+170)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Ivan Erslan (-175)
* Tuco Tokkos (+150)
Key Read: This is a move toward the underdog. Erslan opened as a much larger favorite at -200, but that number has been bet down to around -175. Tokkos has shortened from +170 to +150, suggesting the market is giving him a better chance than the opener did. Erslan is still favored, but the price has become more competitive. We will monitor this market closely around weigh-ins.
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Daniel Gustavo Santos vs. Doo Ho Choi
Opening Line
* Daniel Santos (-115)
* Doo Ho Choi (+105)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Daniel Santos (-165)
* Doo Ho Choi (+135)
Key Read: Santos has taken clear favorite money, moving from -115 to around -160/-170. Choi has drifted from +105 to as high as +140. The market appears to be fading Choi at his opening price. This is one of the stronger favorite-side adjustments on the board.
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Melquizael Costa vs. Arnold Allen
Opening Line
* Melquizael Costa (+140)
* Arnold Allen (-165)
Market Adjustments ⬇️
Current Line
* Melquizael Costa (+115)
* Arnold Allen (-135)
Key Read: This is one of the more interesting moves in the main event. The market has pushed toward Costa, who carries better momentum, riding a 6-fight win streak, while Allen is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Allen opened as a solid -165 favorite but has been bet down closer to -135, while Costa has shortened from +140 to around +115. Allen remains favored, but the market is clearly showing more respect for Costa than the opener did. It’s worth noting that Allen has never been knocked out or even knocked down in his MMA career. Costa’s last two wins have come by vicious knockout.
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