2026 MLB Home Run Derby: Breaking Down Every Contestant's Odds & Path to Winning
The Home Run Derby is unlike any other event in baseball. While regular-season home run totals matter, Derby success often comes down to raw power, bat speed, stamina, and finding the perfect rhythm with your pitcher.
This year's field features a mix of proven superstars, rising young sluggers, and one international sensation, making it one of the deepest Derby lineups in recent memory.
Note: Home Run Derby odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of writing and are subject to change. Statcast metrics are from MLB Baseball Savant's 2026 season.
Kyle Schwarber (+310)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 104.31 mph
Average Bat Speed: 77.1 mph
Schwarber enters the Derby as the Caesars Sportsbook favorite, and it's hard to argue against him. Not only is he competing in front of the Philadelphia faithful at Citizens Bank Park, but his combination of elite raw power and previous Derby experience makes him one of the safest picks in the field. His 104.31 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity ranks fourth among the contestants, while his 77.1 mph average bat speed proves he still generates elite force through the zone. Schwarber's left-handed swing is perfectly built for Citizens Bank Park's inviting right-field dimensions, and few hitters consistently elevate the ball as naturally as he does.
Why He Can Win: Home-field advantage, proven Derby experience, and elite power make Schwarber the deserving betting favorite.
Junior Caminero (+325)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 105.84 mph
Average Bat Speed: 79.9 mph
If raw power determined the Derby winner, Caminero might already have the trophy. The Rays slugger owns the fastest average bat speed in the entire field (79.9 mph) while ranking second in Adjusted Exit Velocity (105.84 mph). Those two metrics explain why baseball evaluators believe he possesses some of the loudest power in the sport. After reaching last year's Home Run Derby Final, Caminero already understands the unique rhythm required to survive multiple rounds.
Why He Can Win: Nobody combines elite bat speed and elite exit velocity better than Caminero.
Munetaka Murakami (+500)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 103.96 mph
Average Bat Speed: 75.2 mph
Murakami may be the mystery man of this year's Derby, but his Statcast numbers suggest he belongs among the favorites. The Japanese superstar has already shown above-average raw power in his first MLB season, posting a 103.96 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity. While his 75.2 mph average bat speed doesn't rank near the top of the field, his incredibly efficient swing consistently produces ideal launch angles and backspin. Many fans know him for his legendary home run totals in Japan, and now he'll have a chance to showcase that power on baseball's biggest stage.
Why He Can Win: A smooth, repeatable swing and elite power production make Murakami one of the tournament's biggest wild cards.
Bryce Harper (+525)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 101.81 mph
Average Bat Speed: 74.3 mph
Harper's Statcast numbers don't jump off the page compared to some of the younger sluggers, but Home Run Derby success has never been solely about raw bat speed. The former Derby champion thrives under pressure and knows how to manage both the clock and his energy. Add in the hometown atmosphere and Harper becomes far more dangerous than his Statcast profile alone would suggest. Few players have performed better on baseball's biggest stages throughout their careers.
Why He Can Win: Experience, composure, and one of the sweetest left-handed swings in baseball.
Jordan Walker (+650)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 105.66 mph
Average Bat Speed: 79.2 mph
Walker may quietly have one of the best statistical profiles in the entire competition. His 105.66 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity ranks third in the Derby field, while his 79.2 mph average bat speed trails only Junior Caminero. Standing 6-foot-6 with tremendous leverage, Walker creates effortless power that few players can match. If he settles into an early rhythm, don't be surprised if he quickly becomes one of the night's biggest stories.
Why He Can Win: Elite bat speed combined with top-tier exit velocity gives Walker championship upside.
Jac Caglianone (+700)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 105.97 mph
Average Bat Speed: 77.3 mph
If you're looking strictly at Statcast numbers, Jac Caglianone owns the most powerful contact in the Derby. His 105.97 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity leads the entire field, proving just how hard he hits baseballs on a consistent basis. Pair that with a 77.3 mph average bat speed, and it's easy to understand why scouts have raved about his generational raw power since college. At +700, he may also present one of the best betting values available.
Why He Can Win: No contestant hits the baseball harder than Caglianone.
Ben Rice (+850)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 101.70 mph
Average Bat Speed: 72.6 mph
Rice enters as one of the biggest underdogs, but his profile is fascinating. Despite posting the slowest average bat speed in the field (72.6 mph), Rice still generates a 101.70 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity, showing just how efficiently he transfers energy into the baseball. Rather than relying purely on violent swings, Rice consistently squares balls up, which could help him maintain endurance over multiple Derby rounds.
Why He Can Win: Efficient mechanics could allow Rice to outlast bigger swingers as fatigue sets in.
Willson Contreras (+1300)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 103.12 mph
Average Bat Speed: 77.0 mph
Contreras may be the longest shot on the Caesars board, but his underlying metrics suggest he shouldn't be overlooked. His 103.12 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity ranks ahead of both Bryce Harper and Ben Rice, while his 77.0 mph average bat speed sits comfortably among the tournament's upper tier. Veteran experience often proves valuable in this event, especially when younger hitters begin rushing their swings under pressure. Why He Can Win: Better Statcast numbers than most bettors realize, paired with years of big-game experience.
Conclusion: With elite power spread throughout the field and Citizens Bank Park expected to reward towering fly balls, this year's Home Run Derby has all the ingredients for a classic. While Kyle Schwarber enters as the favorite, the Statcast data suggests sluggers like Jac Caglianone, Junior Caminero, and Jordan Walker have every bit as much raw power to steal the show.
This year's field features a mix of proven superstars, rising young sluggers, and one international sensation, making it one of the deepest Derby lineups in recent memory.
Note: Home Run Derby odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of writing and are subject to change. Statcast metrics are from MLB Baseball Savant's 2026 season.
Kyle Schwarber (+310)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 104.31 mph
Average Bat Speed: 77.1 mph
Schwarber enters the Derby as the Caesars Sportsbook favorite, and it's hard to argue against him. Not only is he competing in front of the Philadelphia faithful at Citizens Bank Park, but his combination of elite raw power and previous Derby experience makes him one of the safest picks in the field. His 104.31 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity ranks fourth among the contestants, while his 77.1 mph average bat speed proves he still generates elite force through the zone. Schwarber's left-handed swing is perfectly built for Citizens Bank Park's inviting right-field dimensions, and few hitters consistently elevate the ball as naturally as he does.
Why He Can Win: Home-field advantage, proven Derby experience, and elite power make Schwarber the deserving betting favorite.
Junior Caminero (+325)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 105.84 mph
Average Bat Speed: 79.9 mph
If raw power determined the Derby winner, Caminero might already have the trophy. The Rays slugger owns the fastest average bat speed in the entire field (79.9 mph) while ranking second in Adjusted Exit Velocity (105.84 mph). Those two metrics explain why baseball evaluators believe he possesses some of the loudest power in the sport. After reaching last year's Home Run Derby Final, Caminero already understands the unique rhythm required to survive multiple rounds.
Why He Can Win: Nobody combines elite bat speed and elite exit velocity better than Caminero.
Munetaka Murakami (+500)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 103.96 mph
Average Bat Speed: 75.2 mph
Murakami may be the mystery man of this year's Derby, but his Statcast numbers suggest he belongs among the favorites. The Japanese superstar has already shown above-average raw power in his first MLB season, posting a 103.96 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity. While his 75.2 mph average bat speed doesn't rank near the top of the field, his incredibly efficient swing consistently produces ideal launch angles and backspin. Many fans know him for his legendary home run totals in Japan, and now he'll have a chance to showcase that power on baseball's biggest stage.
Why He Can Win: A smooth, repeatable swing and elite power production make Murakami one of the tournament's biggest wild cards.
Bryce Harper (+525)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 101.81 mph
Average Bat Speed: 74.3 mph
Harper's Statcast numbers don't jump off the page compared to some of the younger sluggers, but Home Run Derby success has never been solely about raw bat speed. The former Derby champion thrives under pressure and knows how to manage both the clock and his energy. Add in the hometown atmosphere and Harper becomes far more dangerous than his Statcast profile alone would suggest. Few players have performed better on baseball's biggest stages throughout their careers.
Why He Can Win: Experience, composure, and one of the sweetest left-handed swings in baseball.
Jordan Walker (+650)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 105.66 mph
Average Bat Speed: 79.2 mph
Walker may quietly have one of the best statistical profiles in the entire competition. His 105.66 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity ranks third in the Derby field, while his 79.2 mph average bat speed trails only Junior Caminero. Standing 6-foot-6 with tremendous leverage, Walker creates effortless power that few players can match. If he settles into an early rhythm, don't be surprised if he quickly becomes one of the night's biggest stories.
Why He Can Win: Elite bat speed combined with top-tier exit velocity gives Walker championship upside.
Jac Caglianone (+700)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 105.97 mph
Average Bat Speed: 77.3 mph
If you're looking strictly at Statcast numbers, Jac Caglianone owns the most powerful contact in the Derby. His 105.97 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity leads the entire field, proving just how hard he hits baseballs on a consistent basis. Pair that with a 77.3 mph average bat speed, and it's easy to understand why scouts have raved about his generational raw power since college. At +700, he may also present one of the best betting values available.
Why He Can Win: No contestant hits the baseball harder than Caglianone.
Ben Rice (+850)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 101.70 mph
Average Bat Speed: 72.6 mph
Rice enters as one of the biggest underdogs, but his profile is fascinating. Despite posting the slowest average bat speed in the field (72.6 mph), Rice still generates a 101.70 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity, showing just how efficiently he transfers energy into the baseball. Rather than relying purely on violent swings, Rice consistently squares balls up, which could help him maintain endurance over multiple Derby rounds.
Why He Can Win: Efficient mechanics could allow Rice to outlast bigger swingers as fatigue sets in.
Willson Contreras (+1300)
Adjusted Exit Velocity: 103.12 mph
Average Bat Speed: 77.0 mph
Contreras may be the longest shot on the Caesars board, but his underlying metrics suggest he shouldn't be overlooked. His 103.12 mph Adjusted Exit Velocity ranks ahead of both Bryce Harper and Ben Rice, while his 77.0 mph average bat speed sits comfortably among the tournament's upper tier. Veteran experience often proves valuable in this event, especially when younger hitters begin rushing their swings under pressure. Why He Can Win: Better Statcast numbers than most bettors realize, paired with years of big-game experience.
Conclusion: With elite power spread throughout the field and Citizens Bank Park expected to reward towering fly balls, this year's Home Run Derby has all the ingredients for a classic. While Kyle Schwarber enters as the favorite, the Statcast data suggests sluggers like Jac Caglianone, Junior Caminero, and Jordan Walker have every bit as much raw power to steal the show.
