College Basketball Early Line Moves For Thursday (3/12/2026)
(Updated 3/12 at 8:00am EST)
Iowa vs. Ohio State
Open: Iowa -1.5
Current: Iowa +1.5
Move: 3 Points ➡️ Ohio State
Key Read: Iowa closed as a -6 home favorite in the regular season matchup and won 74-57. Iowa’s home court is valued at +3.2 points via KenPom, putting our projected spread for this game roughly Iowa -2.5. Ohio State appears to be catching early respected action, with oddsmakers adjusting the spread by 3 points toward the Buckeyes.
Virginia vs. NC State
Open: Virginia -4.5
Current: Virginia -6
Move: 1.5 Points ➡️ Virginia
Key Read: Virginia won both regular-season matchups, closing as a -6.5 favorite at home and a +4.5 underdog on the road. With both teams' home courts valued between 3-3.5 points, it’s surprising to see Virginia at a similar number on a neutral court to when they played at home.
UConn vs. Xavier
Open: UConn -14
Current: UConn -15.5
Move: 1.5 Points ➡️ UConn
Key Read: UConn went 2-0 both straight up and ATS against Xavier this season, closing as a -12.5 point favorite on the road and 17.5 at home. Our metrics projected this at the opening number (14), but early action has come in on the Huskies, resulting in a 1.5-point adjustment from the oddsmakers.
Duke vs. Florida State
Open: Duke -18.5
Current: Duke -17.5
Move: 1 Points ➡️ Florida State
Key Read: Duke closed as a -16.5 point road favorite in the regular season matchup and won 91-87. FSU’s home court is valued at roughly 3 points, putting our projected spread in the 18.5-19.5 range. Florida State appears to have caught some respected action overnight, resulting in a 1-point adjustment toward the underdog.
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Iowa vs. Ohio State
Open: Iowa -1.5
Current: Iowa +1.5
Move: 3 Points ➡️ Ohio State
Key Read: Iowa closed as a -6 home favorite in the regular season matchup and won 74-57. Iowa’s home court is valued at +3.2 points via KenPom, putting our projected spread for this game roughly Iowa -2.5. Ohio State appears to be catching early respected action, with oddsmakers adjusting the spread by 3 points toward the Buckeyes.
Virginia vs. NC State
Open: Virginia -4.5
Current: Virginia -6
Move: 1.5 Points ➡️ Virginia
Key Read: Virginia won both regular-season matchups, closing as a -6.5 favorite at home and a +4.5 underdog on the road. With both teams' home courts valued between 3-3.5 points, it’s surprising to see Virginia at a similar number on a neutral court to when they played at home.
UConn vs. Xavier
Open: UConn -14
Current: UConn -15.5
Move: 1.5 Points ➡️ UConn
Key Read: UConn went 2-0 both straight up and ATS against Xavier this season, closing as a -12.5 point favorite on the road and 17.5 at home. Our metrics projected this at the opening number (14), but early action has come in on the Huskies, resulting in a 1.5-point adjustment from the oddsmakers.
Duke vs. Florida State
Open: Duke -18.5
Current: Duke -17.5
Move: 1 Points ➡️ Florida State
Key Read: Duke closed as a -16.5 point road favorite in the regular season matchup and won 91-87. FSU’s home court is valued at roughly 3 points, putting our projected spread in the 18.5-19.5 range. Florida State appears to have caught some respected action overnight, resulting in a 1-point adjustment toward the underdog.
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