Conference Tournament Win Probabilities: What the Odds Say

The win probabilities below are derived entirely from FanDuel betting odds. Each team's raw implied probability is calculated from its American odds, then normalized across the full field to remove the sportsbook's vig — so every conference sums to 100%. Teams are listed in order from most to least likely to win their conference tournament per the market.

America East
• UMBC: 63.3% implied win probability (-275)
• Vermont: 24.0% implied win probability (+260)
• NJIT: 5.1% implied win probability (+1600)
• UMass Lowell: 4.1% implied win probability (+2000)
• Albany: 1.9% implied win probability (+4500)
• Maine: 0.7% implied win probability (+12500)
• New Hampshire: 0.5% implied win probability (+17500)
• Bryant: 0.4% implied win probability (+20000)

Atlantic Sun
• Austin Peay: 25.5% implied win probability (+240)
• Central Arkansas: 32.7% implied win probability (+165)
• Queens: 16.0% implied win probability (+440)
• Lipscomb: 14.4% implied win probability (+500)
• FGCU: 3.8% implied win probability (+2200)
• Eastern Kentucky: 1.7% implied win probability (+5000)
• Jacksonville: 1.5% implied win probability (+5500)
• Bellarmine: 1.5% implied win probability (+5500)
• West Georgia: 1.5% implied win probability (+5500)
• North Florida: 0.4% implied win probability (+20000)
• Stetson: 0.6% implied win probability (+15000)
• North Alabama: 0.3% implied win probability (+25000)

Big Sky
• Eastern Washington: 19.2% implied win probability (+350)
• Montana State: 17.3% implied win probability (+400)
• Northern Colorado: 17.0% implied win probability (+410)
• Portland State: 16.3% implied win probability (+430)
• Weber State: 8.7% implied win probability (+900)
• Montana: 9.6% implied win probability (+800)
• Idaho: 7.9% implied win probability (+1000)
• Idaho State: 2.4% implied win probability (+3500)
• Sacramento State: 0.9% implied win probability (+10000)
• Northern Arizona: 0.7% implied win probability (+12500)

Big South
• High Point: 62.6% implied win probability (-250)
• Winthrop: 15.4% implied win probability (+470)
• Radford: 6.3% implied win probability (+1300)
• Charleston Southern: 5.2% implied win probability (+1600)
• UNC Asheville: 3.1% implied win probability (+2700)
• Presbyterian: 2.8% implied win probability (+3000)
• Longwood: 2.8% implied win probability (+3000)
• USC Upstate: 1.4% implied win probability (+6000)
• Gardner-Webb: 0.4% implied win probability (+20000)

CAA
• UNC Wilmington: 30.8% implied win probability (+175)
• Hofstra: 26.5% implied win probability (+220)
• Charleston: 10.6% implied win probability (+700)
• Monmouth: 7.7% implied win probability (+1000)
• William & Mary: 7.7% implied win probability (+1000)
• Towson: 5.0% implied win probability (+1600)
• Campbell: 3.3% implied win probability (+2500)
• Drexel: 3.3% implied win probability (+2500)
• Stony Brook: 2.1% implied win probability (+4000)
• Elon: 1.3% implied win probability (+6500)
• Hampton: 0.8% implied win probability (+10000)
• North Carolina A&T: 0.7% implied win probability (+12500)
• Northeastern: 0.4% implied win probability (+22500)

Horizon League
• Wright State: 29.1% implied win probability (+200)
• Robert Morris: 29.1% implied win probability (+200)
• Oakland: 12.5% implied win probability (+600)
• Green Bay: 10.9% implied win probability (+700)
• Northern Kentucky: 6.7% implied win probability (+1200)
• Detroit: 6.7% implied win probability (+1200)
• Youngstown State: 3.1% implied win probability (+2700)
• Milwaukee: 1.7% implied win probability (+5000)
• Cleveland State: 0.0% implied win probability (+175000)

MAAC
• Merrimack: 24.0% implied win probability (+260)
• Siena: 18.4% implied win probability (+370)
• Marist: 13.3% implied win probability (+550)
• Quinnipiac: 13.3% implied win probability (+550)
• Saint Peter's: 13.3% implied win probability (+550)
• Fairfield: 6.2% implied win probability (+1300)
• Iona: 4.5% implied win probability (+1800)
• Mount St. Mary's: 4.5% implied win probability (+1800)
• Sacred Heart: 1.9% implied win probability (+4500)
• Manhattan: 0.6% implied win probability (+15000)

Missouri Valley
• Belmont: 34.9% implied win probability (+145)
• Northern Iowa: 15.0% implied win probability (+470)
• Illinois State: 14.2% implied win probability (+500)
• Bradley: 12.2% implied win probability (+600)
• Murray State: 9.0% implied win probability (+850)
• UIC: 6.1% implied win probability (+1300)
• Southern Illinois: 4.5% implied win probability (+1800)
• Valparaiso: 2.1% implied win probability (+4000)
• Drake: 0.8% implied win probability (+10000)
• Indiana State: 0.8% implied win probability (+10000)
• Evansville: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)

NEC
• Long Island: 52.9% implied win probability (-150)
• Mercyhurst: 15.2% implied win probability (+480)
• Central Connecticut State: 12.6% implied win probability (+600)
• Le Moyne: 10.4% implied win probability (+750)
• Wagner: 3.4% implied win probability (+2500)
• Stonehill: 2.5% implied win probability (+3500)
• Fairleigh Dickinson: 2.2% implied win probability (+4000)
• Chicago State: 0.9% implied win probability (+10000)

Ohio Valley
• Tennessee State: 33.7% implied win probability (+160)
• Southeast Missouri State: 18.7% implied win probability (+370)
• UT Martin: 17.9% implied win probability (+390)
• Morehead State: 14.6% implied win probability (+500)
• SIU Edwardsville: 6.3% implied win probability (+1300)
• Lindenwood: 5.5% implied win probability (+1500)
• Little Rock: 2.4% implied win probability (+3500)
• Eastern Illinois: 0.9% implied win probability (+10000)

Patriot League
• Navy: 57.8% implied win probability (-190)
• Colgate: 13.6% implied win probability (+550)
• Lehigh: 10.4% implied win probability (+750)
• Boston University: 7.4% implied win probability (+1100)
• American University: 6.8% implied win probability (+1200)
• Loyola Maryland: 1.9% implied win probability (+4500)
• Holy Cross: 1.2% implied win probability (+7000)
• Bucknell: 0.9% implied win probability (+10000)

Southern Conference
• East Tennessee State: 28.8% implied win probability (+200)
• Mercer: 14.9% implied win probability (+480)
• Furman: 14.4% implied win probability (+500)
• Samford: 14.4% implied win probability (+500)
• Wofford: 10.8% implied win probability (+700)
• Western Carolina: 10.8% implied win probability (+700)
• UNC Greensboro: 3.3% implied win probability (+2500)
• Chattanooga: 2.1% implied win probability (+4000)
• VMI: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)
• The Citadel: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)

Southland
• McNeese State: 40.6% implied win probability (+115)
• Stephen F. Austin: 36.4% implied win probability (+140)
• Texas-Rio Grande Valley: 14.5% implied win probability (+500)
• Texas A&M-CC: 4.2% implied win probability (+2000)
• New Orleans: 2.6% implied win probability (+3300)
• Nicholls State: 1.1% implied win probability (+8000)
• Northwestern State: 0.3% implied win probability (+25000)
• Houston Christian: 0.3% implied win probability (+25000)

Summit League
• St. Thomas: 40.6% implied win probability (+115)
• North Dakota State: 33.0% implied win probability (+165)
• Denver: 7.9% implied win probability (+1000)
• South Dakota State: 6.7% implied win probability (+1200)
• South Dakota: 4.6% implied win probability (+1800)
• Omaha: 4.2% implied win probability (+2000)
• North Dakota: 1.7% implied win probability (+5000)
• Oral Roberts: 0.9% implied win probability (+10000)
• Kansas City: 0.4% implied win probability (+22500)

Sun Belt
• Troy: 32.9% implied win probability (+165)
• Marshall: 19.4% implied win probability (+350)
• Appalachian State: 16.5% implied win probability (+430)
• Arkansas State: 8.7% implied win probability (+900)
• Coastal Carolina: 7.3% implied win probability (+1100)
• South Alabama: 5.8% implied win probability (+1400)
• Texas State: 4.2% implied win probability (+2000)
• Southern Miss: 2.1% implied win probability (+4000)
• James Madison: 1.7% implied win probability (+5000)
• Old Dominion: 0.6% implied win probability (+15000)
• Georgia Southern: 0.5% implied win probability (+17500)
• Louisiana: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)

West Coast Conference (WCC)
• Gonzaga: 61.8% implied win probability (-220)
• Saint Mary's: 25.7% implied win probability (+250)
• Santa Clara: 9.0% implied win probability (+900)
• San Francisco: 0.7% implied win probability (+12500)
• Washington State: 0.4% implied win probability (+22500)
• Pacific: 0.4% implied win probability (+22500)
• Oregon State: 0.4% implied win probability (+20000)
• Loyola Marymount: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)
• Seattle: 0.4% implied win probability (+22500)
• Portland: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)
• San Diego: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)
• Pepperdine: 0.3% implied win probability (+30000)

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