These two teams met in mid January on Duke’s home court via Cameron Stadium. Duke won 77-69, but the game was more competitive than the final score indicates. Pitt had an 11 point lead at halftime, and the Duke offense exploded for 45 points in the second half. Pitt was dominated in the rebounding department in that matchup (51-28). It will be important for Pitt to minimize the rebounding discrepancy today. Outside of that, these teams are not too far apart by our metrics. Duke has an edge on defense, but Pitt’s offense ranks 26th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Duke ranks 64th in this metric. Given the neutral site, we will gladly take the 6.5 points with the underdogs.

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