You can never feel great about betting against Jacob deGrom, but this is a spot where we feel we have to do it. Both of our MLB models suggest the wrong team is favored here. Braves starting pitcher Max Fried is one of the better pitchers in the MLB, and he's been very good on his home mound. The Braves have won 7 of his last 8 home starts. That one loss was to the Mets, but Fried does have a win against the Mets earlier in the season. The Braves have the better bullpen, and they've been great in Atlanta. We will take a half unit flyer on the home divisional dogs.