The Nuggets have been fantastic at home this season (34-7 in Denver). From a betting perspective, the Nuggets went 26-15 against the spread at home, covering at a 63% clip. These teams played four times this season (splitting the games 2-2), but have not played each other in over 2 months. The Nuggets have had over a week to rest and prepare for this game, while the Timberwolves have had to play 2 straight play-in games to get here. The edge we see in this matchup is with the Nuggets offense. Denver led the NBA in field goal percentage. They were the only team in the league to average over 50% from the field. The Nuggets overall offensive rating ranks 5th in the NBA (116.8). The Timberwolves offense ranks toward the bottom of the league at 23rd in this metric (113.1). We will lay the 7.5 points with the better offense playing on their home court. Our stake is a half unit.

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