Tonight might be the last game of the NBA season. The Nuggets have an opportunity to win the franchise's first ever NBA Championship. To make matters even sweeter, the Nuggets have the chance to do it on their home floor in Denver. Unfortunately for the Heat, things didn't go well down in South Beach. Miami dropped both of their home games by double digits. The Heat offense went ice cold on their home floor. Meanwhile, the Nuggets shooters were red hot in game 4. Denver shot 50% from three point range (14/28), compared to 32% for the Heat (8/25). Denver also recorded 11 steals in game 4, which was very uncharacteristic of the Heat offense. Miami typically protects the ball extremely well. In terms of the betting spreads in this series, the number looks to be just a tiny bit inflated tonight. Game 1 in Denver closed at Nuggets -8.5, and game 2 closed at Nuggets -8. This spread sits at a series high 9 points tonight. BetMGM has a +9.5 available (-115). Our model has this spread projected right around 8.5. While the edge is razor thin, we will opt to take the points on the Heat side. Enjoy the game! 

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