UFC 287 Line Movements & Market Notes For The Main & Co Main Events
Alex Pereira (C) vs. Israel Adesanya (1)
Consensus Opener:
Israel Adesanya (-155)
Alex Pereira (+130)
*based on average odds from US Sportsbooks
Best Value To Date:
Israel Adesanya (-130) April 5th @ DraftKings
Alex Pereira (+140) Opening line @ FanDuel
Lowest Value To Date:
Israel Adesanya (-172) March 15th @ FanDuel
Alex Pereira (+110) Current price @ BetMGM
Current Market Price:
Israel Adesanya (-140)
Alex Pereira (+115)
*based on average odds from US Sportsbooks
Implied Win Probability:
Israel Adesanya 58%
*based on average current market price
Market Notes - This line initially steamed toward Alex Pereira at opening, and continued moving his way leading up to fight week. Throughout this week, we've started to see some buy back on Adesanya. It will be interesting to monitor where the market settles after the late money comes in on Friday and Saturday.
Gilbert Burns (5) vs. Jorge Masvidal (11)
Consensus Opener:
Gilbert Burns (-525)
Jorge Masvidal (+370)
*based on average odds from US Sportsbooks
Best Value To Date:
Gilbert Burns (-450) Current line @ DraftKings
Jorge Masvidal (+400) March 30th @ DraftKings
Lowest Value To Date:
Gilbert Burns (-550) Opening line @ BetMGM
Jorge Masvidal (+340) March 27th @ BetMGM
Current Market Price:
Gilbert Burns (-475)
Jorge Masvidal (+355)
*based on average odds from US Sportsbooks
Implied Win Probability:
Gilbert Burns 82%
*based on average current market price
Market Notes -
Over the last 48 hours, this line has started to fall toward Jorge Masvidal. That being said, the move from roughly (+370) to (+340) does not have much significance. Masvidal is in his home town in Miami, and he's a fan favorite. The bookmakers imply roughly a 20-22% win probability for Gamebred Masvidal. If you believe he has a greater chance than that, there is good value here.
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