If you dig into the numbers in this matchup, there is a lot of data that points to the Jets being the better overall football team. We will start with DVOA metrics. We like these because they are adjusted to the strength of schedule of opponents. In defensive DVOA rankings, the Jets rank 4th in NFL and the Vikings rank 23rd. In offensive DVOA, the Jets rank 18th and the Vikings rank 20th. In overall DVOA, the Jets rank 9th, the Vikings rank 22nd. Record wise, the Vikings look like an elite team (9-2). However, when you dig into these advanced metrics, they look like a highly overrated team. Maybe the Vikings are somewhere in the middle of those 2 extremes. Regardless, we will gladly take the 3 points with who the numbers suggest is the better overall team. It's interesting to note that to this point, this line has not crossed 3 on either side. It's been frozen here all week. Many bettors have been waiting to see which way it breaks. Rather than waiting and potentially risking losing value, we will grab a 3. We believe the smarter money that moves the market will gravitate to the Jets side here. The moneyline movement toward the Jets suggests that are assumption is likely correct. We recommend putting a portion of this 1 unit wager on the moneyline, but the majority of it on the spread.

These Detroit Lions have been very good at home this season. Record wise, they are just 2-4, but let's look at the 6 teams they've played in Detroit. In their first home game the Lions lost by 3 to the Eagles, but their offense put up 35 points. In home game 2, the Lions beat the Commanders by 11. The Lions 3rd home game, they scored 45 points against the Seahawks but lost by 3. Home game 4, the Lions led the Dolphins by 10 at halftime but lost 31-27. In their last 2 home games, the Lions beat the Packers (15-9), and followed that up with a tough 3 point loss to the Bills on Thanksgiving. The strength of schedule that the Lions have played has been among the toughest in the league. This is another tough matchup today, but a more favorable one. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence has looked great in recent weeks, and the Jags offense has been playing well. However defensively, this Jags unit struggles in every area outside of pass rush. This is a physical Lions offensive line, and we expect them to win the line of scrimmage in this matchup. Our bet is 1 unit on the Lions.

With a reasonable moneyline price, we would be tempted on the 49ers here. That said, the moneyline number is a bit too steep for our liking. We are going to take a flyer on the road dogs. It's important to know that the Dolphins best offensive lineman and starting left tackle is out. In addition, their starting right tackle is also out. This is not ideal against an elite 49ers pass rush. However, these injuries are factored into the spread. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa gets the football out quickly, and has a ton of playmakers around him to help make up for the thin offensive line. The Dolphins are 8-0 straight up (6-2 against the spread) in the games that Tua has started and finished this season. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree. He's very familiar with this 49ers group. We will take the +4.5 points, and look for this game to be competitive. Our bet is 1 unit.

The Kansas City Chiefs have played their best football on the road this season. Aside from one slip up the Colts early in the year, the Chiefs have beat all other opponents on the road (4-1). That includes a win in Tampa, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. This game is a bit personal for the Chiefs. They led by 11 points heading into halftime against the Bengals in the AFC championship last season. The Bengals came back and won that game, punching their ticket to the Super Bowl. This is certainly a game the Chiefs had circled on their schedule this season. Our numbers have the Chiefs as the #1 offense in the NFL, and by a decent margin. The Bengals also rank within the top 6, but there is still some uncertainty on the health of Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon. The Bengals secondary is very good, as well as their pass rush. Look for the Chiefs to get the rushing attack going today, which is an area the Bengals defense struggles. Our bet is 1 unit on the Chiefs to win the game.

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