Warriors vs. Celtics 8:00pm
NBA Finals (Game 2)
Before we dig into the pick, let's quickly recap game 1. Boston Celtics bettors were on cloud 9 after the Warriors blew a 12 point 4th quarter lead, and ended up losing the game outright by 12. The Celtics went on a 17-0 run in the 4th quarter, and they shot 51% from 3 point range! Jayson Tatum had a tough game, but just about everybody else stepped up in his place. In terms of this bet, simply put, we do not believe the Celtics will be able to sustain shooting the ball at a 50% clip from downtown. Especially not on the road. It's not a sustainable metric, and we expect that to drop tonight. The Celtics are 8-1 on the road this postseason, which is another metric that is pretty wild. We'd expect that road record to move closer to the mean by the time this series is over. A couple other interesting notes. The Warriors are +10.8 units in terms of profitability against the spread after a loss this season. In the Steve Kerr era, they have bounced back well after a playoff loss. The Warriors need this game, and we are going to roll with 2 separate bets on them here. One on the spread, and another on the moneyline.
I'm sure many of you have seen "the trend" circulating on social media and the sports news outlets. For those who haven't, here it is. Over the last 10 years, in NBA Finals games with a spread of -6 or less, the winner of the game has covered the spread 100% of the time. It's 62-0 or 63-0 or something wild like that. However, we bring this up because we believe this trend is rather stupid to follow. A 62 or 63 game sample size is WAY too small. Yes it's an interesting stat, but if you are going to bet based on trends and historical data, you need a much larger sample size for it to pull any weight. We believe this game could come down to the wire, so we will opt to bet the moneyline in addition to the spread.
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