This is one of those games where you have to decide how much you trust and value data. For example, there aren’t many logical reasons why an NFL fan would feel the Colts would hang in this game tonight. They just blew the biggest lead in NFL history last week (led the Vikings 33-0). Nick Foles is playing for the first time in nearly 2 years, and their best offensive player (Jonathan Taylor) and defensive player (Shaq Leonard) are out for the year. Tonight the Colts are facing a healthier Chargers team, who are coming off of back to back wins. Our data suggests the Colts have the better defense, with the Chargers having the edge on offense. Chargers QB Justin Herbert struggled passing last week against the Titans secondary. The Colts secondary grades out higher than the Titans, and the Colts run defense grades out top 10 in the league. The Chargers run defense remains a liability. We are going to trust the data and ride with the home dogs. We will look for the Colts to keep this game within a field goal. It’s worth noting, the Charges have only won 1 road game the entire season by more than 4 points (Texans). Our bet is 1 unit.

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