This should be a highly entertaining game in Sacramento tonight. The Kings finally ended a 16 year playoff drought. For us, this bet comes down to a couple of key factors. This season we have frequently faded the Warriors on the road, and this spot has been highly profitable for us. The Warriors are 12-29 against the spread on the road this season. The popular narrative in this series seems to be that the Warriors will flip the light switch on, and play better on the road now that the playoffs have started. We aren't so quick to buy into that. We prefer to see that light switch go on before we bet on it. The second factor that swayed our bet is how good the Kings offense has been all season. Sacramento led the NBA in points per game, and ranked 2nd overall in field goal percentage. Since the All Star break, the Kings have the 2nd ranked offensive efficiency rating (trailing only the Sixers). In terms of experience, the Warriors certainly have a big edge. However, we expect that experience to play a bigger factor the deeper this series goes. Our wager is 1 unit on the Kings to take care of business and win game one.

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