If the Celtics get swept tonight, we are going down with their ship. All series we have stressed the importance of the Celtics offense knocking down three point shots. So far in this series Boston’s three point shooting metrics have been a nightmare. They shot 34% in game 1 (10/29), 28% in game 2 (10/35), and 26% in game 3 (11/42). Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has done a great job preparing his team to defend the perimeter in this series. In a crucial game 3, the Heat shot 57% from the floor, including 54% from three point range (19/35). In the other avenues of game 3, the Celtics dominated the boards (57-35) and outscored the Heat in the paint by 10 points. The Celtics had 15 turnover compared to just 9 for Miami. Not a single Celtics player scored more than 14 points. Heat role players Gabe Vincent & Duncan Robinson combined for 51 points, shooting nearly 70% from three point range in 16 attempts between the two! There has been a huge adjustment to this spread from where it was in game 3 (-3 to +2 for Boston). We are betting on regression from the Heat offense (especially their shooters), and for the Celtics to play closer to their larger sample size season/postseason averages. Celtics +2 is our wager.

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