We see some value in fading the public here and taking 8 points with the home team. Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return after missing games 2 and 3. The Heat are 3-0 against the Bucks in Miami this season. However, Giannis did not play in any of those games. The Heat played very well offensively in game 3. Miami shot 53% from the field, 48% from three point range, and won the rebounding and turnover battles. Giannis returning will give the Bucks a boost defensively. That said, we anticipate a bit of regression for the Heat offense tonight. It's worth noting, the line movement in this game has been interesting. This line sat at Heat +5.5 earlier this morning. At that time it was not official that Giannis would return, but his return was certainly anticipated and expected. Once the news became official of Giannis playing, the line jumped to +7.5. Now remember, the game 3 spread (without Giannis) closed at Heat +2.5. Our model suggests this spread should be sitting right around the initial opening spread of 5.5. The public is going to be HEAVY on the Bucks spread and moneyline tonight. Milwaukee will likely be the most popular parlay piece of the night. We believe the books are charging a premium to bet the Bucks, which has created value on the other side with the home team. We opted for a +8 at BetRivers. Enjoy the game!

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