It’s no secret that Duke is scorching hot right now. It’s also no secret that Tennessee has looked a bit vulnerable over the last month. To make matters worse, the injury to Zakai Zeigler for Tennessee was a significant one. Zeigler accounted for about 22% of Tennessee's total shots, but more importantly, his court vision will be missed. Zakai Zeigler had a 36.6 assist rate, which ranked top 10 in the entire nation. This being said, it's import to remember that all of this information is factored into the spread. In our opinion, Tennessee is being offered at discount today based on the recency bias on Duke, and all the question marks surrounding injuries and recent struggles. Our model has this game capped out at nearly a true pick 'em. The KenPom metrics are calling for an outright win by 3 points for Tennessee. We will trust the data here, and fade Duke. Give us Tennessee with the +3.5 points. 

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