Last year's NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has struggled a bit in his last two starts. He’s given up 14 runs (12 earned) in his last 10 innings. Due to the back to back poor performances, we are getting an appealing price in this bet. Braves 23 year old starter Bryce Elder has been impressive through his first 4 starts. However, Elder’s ERA is currently far below his expected metrics (1.14). We anticipate some regression for the young pitcher, while we expect Alcantara’s numbers to improve. By taking the +0.5 run line, this bet has two paths to cashing. The first is if the Marlins can remain tied with the Braves through the first 5 innings. The second is if the Marlins are able to have the lead after the first 5 innings. The Braves hold the better bullpen, so we are taking the later innings out of play.

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