We are rolling with TJ Dillashaw in this fight for a couple of reasons. First, we believe the books have this fight slightly mispriced. At this (+150) price, it implies that the books are giving Dillashaw roughly a 40% chance to win. We've crunched a lot of numbers, and we've talked to a lot of great resources about this matchup. Everything we have done points to this being much closer to a 50-50 fight. TJ Dillashaw is the more dangerous striker. Aljamain Sterling may have the wrestling/grappling edge, but again, the numbers suggest it's pretty damn close. TJ Dillashaw has an 86% takedown defense rate, and he has never been submitted in his UFC career. We will gladly take the juicy plus money on the underdog here. Our bet is on the TJ Dillashaw moneyline for one unit.

All picks and content are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team for full access to everything we have to offer.